Recent developments underscore the urgency of this strategic realignment. The ongoing civil conflict in Myanmar has presented a significant humanitarian and security challenge, directly impacting Thailand through refugee flows and economic disruption. While Thailand has repeatedly called for dialogue and a peaceful resolution, its ability to exert significant influence on the military junta remains limited due to ASEAN’s collective decision-making process. As noted by Dr. Benigno Aguas, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, “Thailand’s willingness to engage with Myanmar, even while advocating for ASEAN unity, demonstrates a pragmatic recognition that a fractured ASEAN is far less effective than a coordinated one. The challenge lies in operationalizing that coordination.” The ASEAN Special Envoy for Myanmar, appointed in 2021, has had limited success in brokering a ceasefire or facilitating humanitarian access.
Furthermore, Thailand’s approach to the South China Sea dispute is inextricably linked to ASEAN’s stance. The Philippines’ escalating challenges to China’s expansive claims, backed by U.S. naval deployments, are creating a volatile situation. Thailand, a close neighbor and a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum, has cautiously supported the Philippines’ claims while emphasizing the importance of upholding international law and peaceful resolution. However, Thailand’s position is constrained by its broader economic ties with China, requiring a nuanced approach to avoid antagonizing Beijing. According to Mr. Lim Boon Chee, Senior Analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Southeast Asia Program, “Thailand’s ability to mediate in the South China Sea conflict will depend on its continued commitment to ASEAN unity and its willingness to leverage its economic relationship with China to exert diplomatic pressure.”
The November 9th event in Hong Kong, a “fireside chat” with Hong Kong-based business leaders, exemplifies this strategy. Discussions around ASEAN’s development amidst geopolitical changes signals a focus on attracting foreign investment and bolstering trade within the region. The conversation on Thailand’s foreign policy perspectives indicates a proactive approach to adapting to the new realities of a multipolar world, emphasizing economic diversification and strengthening regional partnerships. This reinforces Thailand’s position as a crucial link between mainland China and the global economy. The event itself highlighted a deliberate effort to cultivate relationships with key economic actors, understanding that robust economic cooperation is a critical component of Thailand’s strategic leverage.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s strategic pivot will likely continue, with a greater emphasis on strengthening ASEAN’s institutional capacity and fostering greater collective action. Short-term outcomes, over the next six months, will likely see continued engagement with key regional partners, particularly China and the United States, albeit with varying degrees of success. Long-term, from five to ten years, Thailand’s role as a mediator within ASEAN will become increasingly important as the region faces significant challenges. However, the effectiveness of this strategy will depend on Thailand’s ability to overcome internal divisions within ASEAN and to secure a more unified and decisive approach to pressing regional issues, like the instability in Myanmar. The future of Thailand’s strategic positioning hinges on its ability to successfully navigate the complex interplay of economic interests, geopolitical pressures, and the evolving dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. The question remains whether Thailand can maintain its balance and ultimately, whether ASEAN can evolve into a genuinely effective mechanism for regional security and prosperity.