The immediate impetus for the discussion between Ms. Pinsuda Jayanama, Director-General of the Department of International Organizations, and H.E. Mr. Pedro Zwahlen, Ambassador of the Swiss Confederation to Thailand, centered on the UNHCR’s operations and Thailand’s ongoing cooperation. Data released by UNHCR indicates that over 180,000 IDPs remain in Thailand, many residing in precarious conditions along the Thailand-Myanmar border. A key element of the conversation, as highlighted by the Swiss Ambassador’s comments, was the Thai government’s allowance for IDPs to work outside of formal shelters – a move lauded as essential for economic self-sufficiency and reduced reliance on international aid. According to a report by the International Crisis Group, this approach represents a pragmatic recognition of the limitations of purely humanitarian solutions, acknowledging the long-term need for sustainable livelihoods for displaced populations.
Historically, Thailand’s relationship with Myanmar has been deeply intertwined with border security and the management of cross-border movement. The 1984 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, signed with Myanmar, has often been invoked to justify Thailand’s assertive stance on border control, particularly concerning illegal migration and smuggling. However, the current IDP situation necessitates a revised approach, influenced by international human rights norms and the increasing pressure from international bodies. The 2024 Geneva Refugee Convention, ratified by Thailand in 2002, obligates the country to provide protection to refugees and asylum seekers. Yet, implementation remains hampered by concerns regarding border security and the potential strain on already limited resources.
Key stakeholders involved include Thailand, Myanmar (though its government is largely excluded from international engagement), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, ASEAN member states, and various international NGOs like Médecins Sans Frontières. The Thai government, under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisins, faces considerable domestic pressure to maintain border security while simultaneously fulfilling its humanitarian obligations. ASEAN plays a crucial mediating role, attempting to facilitate dialogue between Myanmar and the various armed groups. However, the Tatmadaw’s continued resistance to engagement remains a major obstacle.
Recent developments over the last six months further complicate the situation. The resumption of fighting between the Tatmadaw and the People’s Defence Force (PDF) has led to a significant increase in IDP numbers. Furthermore, the international community’s fragmented response, characterized by competing interests and a lack of unified action, has left Thailand to grapple with the crisis largely on its own. According to data from the Thai Border Police, border security operations have increased by 30% in the last six months, reflecting heightened concerns regarding potential infiltration and instability.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) prognosis suggests a continued worsening of the humanitarian situation, contingent on the escalation or de-escalation of conflict in Myanmar. Thailand will likely continue to play a critical role in facilitating humanitarian assistance, albeit with limited external support. Longer-term (5–10 years), the crisis presents the possibility of a protracted humanitarian landscape, requiring sustained diplomatic efforts and possibly, increased investment in border infrastructure and security measures. There’s also the potential for a broader regional instability if the conflict in Myanmar further destabilizes neighboring countries. A further challenge will be the evolving nature of IDP needs, transitioning from immediate emergency relief to long-term solutions involving durable solutions, such as voluntary repatriation (an extremely unlikely scenario given the current security climate) or resettlement.
Ultimately, Thailand’s response to the Myanmar IDP crisis will define its role as a responsible regional actor. The meeting with the Swiss Ambassador represents a step in the right direction – a recognition of the complexities and a willingness to engage with international partners. However, sustained action will require a fundamental shift in Thailand’s approach, prioritizing human rights alongside national security, and embracing a more proactive and coordinated role within the broader international humanitarian community. The challenge for Thailand is to transform a reactive stance into a model of strategic engagement, one that balances competing interests and contributes to a more stable and secure Southeast Asia.