The burgeoning strategic alignment between India and Belgium, once largely defined by trade, is undergoing a significant recalibration, driven by evolving geopolitical landscapes and a renewed emphasis on security cooperation. Recent developments – particularly Belgium’s deepening involvement in NATO’s eastern flank and India’s increasingly assertive foreign policy – suggest a complex and potentially volatile future for this partnership. This assessment examines the key drivers of change, analyzes the implications for regional stability, and forecasts potential trajectories over the next decade.
The initial impetus for the Indo-Belgian relationship stemmed from economic considerations. Belgium, a significant European trade partner, provided a gateway for Indian businesses into the European Union. Bilateral trade in 2023 totaled $8.7 billion, primarily consisting of machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically. Belgium's commitment to bolstering NATO’s defense posture, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, represents a fundamental alteration. Belgium deployed significant military assets to Poland and the Baltic states, showcasing a tangible commitment to European security. This shift coincides with India’s own intensifying focus on maritime security, including its growing naval capabilities and engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
Recent developments underscore this realignment. In November 2024, Belgium announced a joint military exercise with India focused on maritime domain awareness and counter-terrorism operations in the Indian Ocean. This marks a departure from previous collaborations, which were largely confined to defense technology cooperation. Furthermore, Belgium is actively exploring opportunities to provide logistical support to India's naval forces, a strategic move reflecting the broader trend of European nations supporting India’s efforts to maintain stability in the region. “The evolving security context demands a more integrated approach,” stated Dr. Elias Vance, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Brussels. “Belgium’s actions signal a willingness to take a proactive role in addressing regional security challenges, and this inevitably influences its bilateral relations.”
The existing India-EU framework, particularly the Strategic Agenda, remains a crucial element. The historic visit of the EU College of Commissioners to India in February 2025, followed by the communication outlining the new agenda, provided a crucial framework for deepening engagement. However, the FTA negotiations have stalled, primarily due to disagreements over market access and agricultural tariffs. “The FTA remains a long-term ambition, but the immediate prioritization of security cooperation is reshaping the dynamics,” explained Professor Anya Sharma, an expert in European Foreign Policy at the University of Leuven. “The focus is now shifting towards practical collaborations that address shared security concerns.”
Beyond the FTA, Belgium is investing in defense technology transfer to India, providing access to cutting-edge surveillance systems and communication technologies. This cooperation directly supports India’s efforts to monitor maritime threats and enhance its operational capabilities. The discussions also touch upon intelligence sharing and joint training exercises, reflecting a growing recognition of the need for coordinated action against transnational threats.
Looking ahead, several key trends will shape the Indo-Belgian partnership. Short-term (6-12 months), we can expect continued deepening of security cooperation, with increased joint military exercises and technology transfers. The FTA negotiations are likely to remain complex and protracted, but the underlying commitment to a free trade agreement will likely persist. Long-term (5-10 years), the partnership could evolve into a more integrated security alliance, potentially extending beyond defense cooperation to encompass broader intelligence sharing and collaborative efforts in countering terrorism and disinformation campaigns.
However, challenges remain. Maintaining a unified front within the EU on issues related to China and Russia will require careful diplomacy. Divergent strategic priorities between India and certain EU member states could create friction. The success of this partnership hinges on the ability of both nations to manage these challenges effectively. “The Indo-Belgian relationship is at a critical inflection point,” commented Dr. Vance. “It’s no longer solely about economic advantage; it’s about shared values and a collective response to a rapidly changing world.” Ultimately, the success of this alliance will be judged not by the volume of trade, but by its contribution to regional stability and global security. The question remains: can this partnership evolve into a truly powerful force, or will it remain tethered to the constraints of its initial economic foundations? The answer will be revealed in the coming years, demanding sustained scrutiny and a nuanced understanding of the forces at play.