However, the recent crisis stemming from the February 2021 military coup in Myanmar has exposed critical weaknesses in Thailand’s “5S” framework. The Thai government’s policy of allowing MDPs to work outside designated shelters, a key component of the “Stability” pillar, has become a focal point of international criticism. Concerns have risen surrounding labor exploitation, human trafficking, and the potential for these individuals to be used as proxies in the ongoing conflict. The lack of robust oversight and effective enforcement mechanisms has contributed to a situation where Thailand’s humanitarian gesture has been viewed by some as enabling, rather than mitigating, the crisis. Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) indicates a substantial increase in the number of unregistered MDPs in Thailand over the past six months, further amplifying these concerns. “The situation highlights the fundamental tension between Thailand’s desire to project itself as a responsible regional actor and the practical difficulties of managing a large influx of displaced persons without adequate safeguards,” noted Dr. Anusuya Datta, Senior Analyst at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, during a recent briefing.
Furthermore, Thailand’s approach to regional security has been increasingly shaped by the growing influence of China. While seeking to maintain engagement with the United States, Thailand’s strategic alignment with Beijing, particularly regarding infrastructure development and security cooperation, has raised concerns among Western allies. The recent signing of a security cooperation agreement with China, focused on maritime surveillance and defense capabilities, represents a significant departure from Thailand’s traditional partnership with the US and underscores the complex balancing act at the heart of the “5S” framework. According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “Thailand’s strategic diversification reflects a broader trend among Southeast Asian nations seeking to mitigate the risks associated with US-China competition.”
Looking ahead, the short-term (next six months) will likely see Thailand continue to grapple with the fallout from the Myanmar crisis. Increased international pressure for a more proactive stance, coupled with growing concerns about human rights violations and the potential for a regional security escalation, will necessitate a reassessment of the “5S” framework. Longer-term (5–10 years), Thailand’s success will hinge on its ability to fundamentally reform its approach to humanitarian diplomacy and regional security. This will require strengthening oversight mechanisms for MDPs, enhancing collaboration with international organizations like the UNHCR, and adopting a more consistently principled stance on human rights issues. “Thailand’s long-term security depends on its ability to build genuine partnerships based on mutual respect and shared values,” commented Dr. Robert Neumann, former Senior Director for Southeast Asia at the U.S. Department of State, in a recent op-ed. The “5S” framework, if properly adapted, could represent a vital component of a stable and prosperous Southeast Asia, but only if Thailand demonstrates a commitment to addressing the inherent challenges with both strategic foresight and ethical responsibility. The continued evolution of Thailand’s role within the ASEAN community and its broader regional relationships will be a key indicator of its success.