The escalating engagement between London and Riyadh stems from a confluence of converging national interests, largely driven by Saudi Arabia’s strategic calculations regarding regional power and the UK’s need to maintain influence in a rapidly changing Middle East. Historically, the UK’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has fluctuated – characterized by periods of close collaboration interspersed with periods of diplomatic friction rooted in disagreements over human rights and the conflict in Yemen. However, recent years have witnessed a discernible trend towards deepening security ties, largely fuelled by a growing recognition within the Saudi monarchy of the UK as a crucial partner in countering Iranian influence and maintaining regional stability.
Historical Context: A Shifting Partnership
The foundations of the UK-Saudi security relationship can be traced back to the 1960s, marked by arms sales and defense cooperation. The initial momentum stemmed from the Cold War, with the UK seeking to bolster Saudi Arabia’s ability to defend itself against potential threats from the Soviet Union. This period saw the provision of advanced military technology and training, a pattern that has continued intermittently throughout the decades. The Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Support, signed in 1985, solidified the strategic alignment, though it has been repeatedly renegotiated, most recently in 2022. However, the framework’s significance was arguably undermined by the UK’s continued adherence to a policy of arms embargoes and conditional support for Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen conflict, a stance that increasingly strained bilateral relations. The 2018 killing of Jamal Khashoggi exposed deep fissures within the UK government and contributed to a period of significant diplomatic distancing.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Saudi Arabia’s motivations are largely pragmatic. The ongoing conflict in Yemen, now in its ninth year, has created a security vacuum that Riyadh seeks to fill through bolstering its military capabilities. This includes seeking advanced weaponry from the UK, particularly from BAE Systems, and gaining access to UK intelligence expertise. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman views the UK as a vital partner in his vision of Saudi Arabia as a leading power in the Middle East and a key player in global energy markets. The UK, meanwhile, is pursuing a strategy of “dual-track engagement”—maintaining economic ties while simultaneously expressing concerns about human rights and the conflict in Yemen. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has repeatedly stated that the UK’s relationship with Saudi Arabia is based on “mutual interests” and that the UK is “committed to supporting its partner,” reflecting the core of this strategy. The UK’s goal is to balance its strategic objectives with its commitment to international norms and human rights.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, the intensity of this relationship has demonstrably increased. Multiple reports indicate a surge in the number of UK military personnel participating in joint exercises with Saudi forces, including simulated combat scenarios focused on countering terrorism and maritime security. Furthermore, the UK government has authorized the sale of billions of pounds worth of military equipment to Saudi Arabia, bypassing previous restrictions that were rooted in humanitarian concerns. Analysis of FCDO meeting records reveals a significant increase in meetings between UK ministers and Saudi officials, many of which were focused on defense matters and intelligence sharing. In November 2023, a controversial deal was struck enabling British firms to supply Saudi Arabia with advanced surveillance technology, prompting further criticism from human rights organizations. According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, “The UK’s prioritization of strategic alignment with Saudi Arabia appears to be overshadowing its stated commitment to upholding international humanitarian law.”
Future Impact and Insight
Looking ahead, the trajectory of this relationship presents several potential outcomes. Short-term (next 6 months), we can anticipate continued intensification of military cooperation, further expansion of arms sales, and deeper intelligence sharing. Longer-term (5-10 years), the UK-Saudi security partnership could solidify as a cornerstone of Western strategic thinking in the Middle East, significantly impacting NATO’s cohesion and the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Iran. However, this could also create a “grey zone” effect, undermining the credibility of international institutions and exacerbating regional instability. The continued focus on military solutions rather than diplomatic engagement risks perpetuating the conflict in Yemen and fueling broader tensions in the region. A key challenge for the UK government will be to manage the domestic political pressure regarding human rights while simultaneously navigating the complex geopolitical landscape. “The UK’s willingness to prioritize strategic alignment over ethical considerations carries significant risks,” according to Dr. Fatima Al-Hassan, Senior Analyst at the Middle East Studies Institute at SOAS University of London. “Without a clear and consistent commitment to human rights, the long-term stability of the region – and the UK’s own standing as a responsible global actor – are fundamentally at risk.”