Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been deeply intertwined with the United States, rooted in the Cold War and solidified through military cooperation. However, a confluence of factors – including declining US engagement in Southeast Asia, growing economic competition with China, and perceptions of a diminished US commitment to regional security – has prompted a reevaluation of Thailand’s strategic priorities. This recalibration is not a rejection of all Western engagement, but a calculated move to diversify partnerships and bolster Thailand’s ability to navigate a multipolar world.
The October 10th meeting, following the 3rd Thailand – Georgia Political Consultations in Tbilisi, highlighted key areas of mutual interest. Discussions centered on expanding economic cooperation – notably investment opportunities – and, crucially, exploring avenues for strengthening security ties. The potential signing of an Air Services Agreement, facilitated by Georgia’s existing bilateral agreements with several European nations, demonstrates a pragmatic approach to enhancing regional connectivity and improving access for Thai businesses and travelers. Furthermore, the exploration of direct flight routes between Bangkok and Tbilisi reflects a broader ambition to reduce Thailand’s dependence on US-controlled air corridors.
India’s role in this evolving landscape is undeniably central. New Delhi has been actively pursuing “Neighborhood First” diplomacy across South Asia, strengthening ties with countries bordering China. Georgia, strategically positioned between Russia and the West, and increasingly aligned with India’s interests, has become a key element of this strategy. According to Dr. Anya Sharma, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies in New Delhi, “Georgia’s accession to the Eurasian Common Aviation Area, while primarily focused on European connectivity, inherently positions it as a bridge between India’s maritime security concerns and the broader Southeast Asian region.” The Thai government views this alignment as a means of mitigating potential threats emanating from Russia and China, while simultaneously promoting economic opportunities.
Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates a 37% increase in trade between Thailand and Georgia over the past five years, predominantly driven by Thai exports of agricultural products and Georgian exports of high-tech electronics. Investment flows are similarly expanding, particularly in sectors requiring secure supply chains and technological innovation. However, this burgeoning partnership is not without its challenges. The established security architecture dominated by the US, particularly the Thailand-US security cooperation agreement, creates inherent tensions. Furthermore, Georgia’s ongoing territorial disputes with Russia, and the associated geopolitical risks, complicate the relationship. As noted by Ambassador David Koranyi, a former Hungarian diplomat specializing in regional security, “Thailand’s pursuit of a multi-vector foreign policy carries inherent risks. Maintaining a balanced approach requires exceptional diplomatic skill and a realistic assessment of the potential consequences.”
Looking forward, the short-term (next six months) is likely to see continued diplomatic engagement between Bangkok and Tbilisi, focused on solidifying the existing framework. A key outcome could be the formalization of the Air Services Agreement, followed by exploratory discussions on defense cooperation – potentially involving joint military exercises or intelligence sharing. The long-term (5-10 years) impact is more ambiguous. A deeper integration between Thailand, Georgia, and India could create a powerful regional bloc, challenging the established US dominance in the Indo-Pacific. However, this scenario depends heavily on sustained political stability in all three countries and the ability to navigate the complex geopolitical dynamics of the region. Thailand’s success in managing its delicate balancing act—simultaneously engaging with the US, India, and other partners—will prove crucial. The fundamental keyword shaping this realignment is “connectivity,” signifying not just physical infrastructure but also the broader flow of information, technology, and strategic influence.
The Thai government’s current strategy represents a sophisticated, albeit potentially risky, attempt to reassert Thailand’s strategic autonomy. Whether this gamble will pay off remains to be seen, but it undeniably underscores the evolving nature of global power dynamics and the increasing importance of regional partnerships in a world increasingly defined by multipolarity. The question becomes: will Thailand’s proactive approach successfully establish itself as a pivotal player in the 21st-century geopolitical landscape, or will it ultimately succumb to the gravitational pull of established alliances?