Historical Context and Key Trends
Since 2009, UK ODA spend has fluctuated, influenced heavily by the global economic climate. Following a peak in 2019 at approximately £14.7 billion, largely driven by the ambitious ‘official’ 0.7% of GNI target (never fully realised), spending has experienced a significant downward pressure. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a temporary increase in 2020, reflecting the urgent need for international health assistance. However, subsequent years have seen a consolidation of aid priorities, with a noticeable shift towards bilateral funding rather than multilateral organizations, as outlined in the UK’s 2022 aid strategy.
Data from the SID series consistently demonstrates this trend. The decline in ODA after 2020 reflects broader austerity measures within the UK budget, a recalibration of priorities following Brexit, and an increased emphasis on security-related spending. While the 0.7% target remains a stated goal, achieving it has become increasingly difficult, demonstrating a substantial shortfall in recent years.
The SID data, published twice yearly, relies heavily on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which calculates Gross National Income (GNI) estimates and uses this to determine the amount of aid the UK is expected to contribute. The timings of these releases, dictated by the ONS and the processing of ODA figures to the OECD, introduce a degree of lag and can impact the timeliness of the information. In 2023, a review by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) confirmed that SID continues to be designated as ‘Accredited Official Statistics’, but highlighted the need for ongoing scrutiny of the methodologies used to ensure accuracy and consistency. This reflects a wider trend of increased regulatory oversight of official statistics within the UK.
Methodological Developments and Challenges
The measurement of ODA is inherently complex, involving the classification of various forms of assistance. Historically, the UK has employed a largely conservative approach, meticulously accounting for ‘in-donor refugee costs’ – expenditures related to supporting refugees originating from countries where the UK provides aid. This approach, detailed in the Official Development Assistance methodology report, represents a significant portion of the total ODA figure and has been a subject of debate, with critics arguing that it overestimates the true amount of aid available for development programs.
Furthermore, the 2021 revisions to the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) guidelines regarding the reporting of ODA-eligible administrative costs—as outlined in the explanatory note—created a major methodological shift. The UK initially resisted adopting these changes, leading to a reduction in its reported ODA spend. This highlights the ongoing tension between the UK’s approach to aid measurement and international standards.
Improvements to the UK calculation of imputed multilateral shares (IMS) – the methodology for accounting for contributions to multilateral organisations like the World Bank – have also been implemented, as documented in the Grant Equivalent Technical Note, aiming to provide a more accurate representation of the UK’s contribution to global development efforts. However, the accuracy of IMS calculations remains a point of contention.
Future Implications and Engagement
The upcoming release of the final 2024 ODA spend figures will undoubtedly be scrutinized for its implications. Short-term forecasts predict a continued downward trajectory, influenced by the ongoing economic instability and the prioritisation of domestic needs. Long-term, the UK’s ODA commitment is likely to remain under pressure, unless there is a fundamental shift in economic policy or a renewed commitment to the 0.7% target.
The FCDO actively encourages engagement with users of its SID statistics through public consultations, feedback surveys, and a dedicated user group. Contributing to this user group – via Stats User Net – offers a valuable opportunity to influence the evolution of this crucial set of data and contribute to a more robust understanding of the UK’s role in global development.