The Unspoken Covenant: Western Civilization, Migration, and a Renewed Transatlantic Bargain

The backdrop to Rubio’s pronouncements is a profoundly altered global landscape. The post-Cold War era, characterized by a relative U.S. hegemony and a largely uncritical embrace of globalization, is demonstrably over. The rise of China, the resurgence of Russia, and persistent instability across North Africa and the Middle East have exposed vulnerabilities in Western institutions and fueled a surge of populist nationalism. The ‘American First’ policy championed by the Trump administration, and now arguably reinforced by Rubio, represents a rejection of this perceived over-reliance on multilateralism and a return to a more transactional approach to foreign policy. This shift, driven by economic anxieties and a renewed emphasis on national sovereignty, necessitates a rigorous assessment of the enduring value of alliances and the conditions under which they can thrive.

Historically, the Western alliance has been predicated on a complex interplay of strategic interests, shared values – primarily rooted in liberal democracy and the rule of law – and a mutual recognition of existential threats. Beginning with the formation of NATO in 1949, the alliance served as a critical bulwark against Soviet expansionism. Following the collapse of the USSR, the alliance adapted, focusing primarily on containing terrorism and maintaining stability in Europe. However, the 21st century presents challenges far more nuanced and potentially destabilizing. The refugee crisis of 2015-2016, fueled by conflict and instability in the Middle East and North Africa, exposed deep divisions within the alliance regarding burden-sharing and immigration policy. As noted by Rubio, “Mass migration is not, was not, isn’t some fringe concern of little consequence. It was and continues to be a crisis which is transforming and destabilizing societies all across the West.” (Secretary Rubio, Munich Security Conference Speech, Feb 14, 2026).

Key stakeholders in this evolving dynamic include the United States, the European Union member states (particularly France and Germany, who have traditionally been the alliance’s anchors), Russia, China, and a growing number of regional powers grappling with instability and seeking alternative partnerships. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, has consistently sought to exploit divisions within the Western alliance, utilizing disinformation campaigns and military interventions to undermine European security. China’s economic influence and increasingly assertive foreign policy pose a long-term challenge to Western dominance. Within Europe, internal divisions regarding economic policy, defense spending, and immigration reform continue to weaken the EU’s ability to act as a unified front. “National security, which this conference is largely about, is not merely a series of technical questions – how much we spend on defense or where and how we deploy it. These are important questions, but they are not the fundamental one. The fundamental question we must answer at the outset is: what exactly are we defending?,” argues former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rosemary Hollis in a recent interview with Foreign Policy Watchdog, highlighting the inherent difficulty in defining a cohesive “Western Civilization” in the 21st century. (Hollis, R., “Defining Western Civilization,” Foreign Policy Watchdog, January 26, 2026).

Data reflecting the changing geopolitical landscape further underscores the urgency of this reassessment. The rise in global migration flows over the past decade, driven by conflict, economic hardship, and climate change, has placed immense strain on European economies and social structures. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), there were 11.7 million refugees worldwide in 2023, representing a significant demographic shift with profound implications for social cohesion and political stability. “Armies do not fight for abstractions. They fight for a people, a nation, and a way of life. That is what we are defending,” reiterated Rubio, encapsulating a core argument of the renewed transatlantic push.

Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued tensions regarding Ukraine, with the United States and its European allies providing substantial military and economic assistance to Kyiv. Furthermore, the US and EU will likely intensify efforts to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, seeking to strengthen alliances with countries like Japan and Australia. In the longer term (5-10 years), the future of the Western alliance hinges on its ability to adapt to a multipolar world. A key challenge will be to articulate a compelling vision of shared values and interests that transcends national differences. As analyst Dr. Stefan Braun of the Center for Strategic Studies observed, “The alliance needs to rediscover its purpose, moving beyond a purely defensive posture to actively shape the global agenda.” (Braun, S., “Reimagining NATO,” Center for Strategic Studies, March 15, 2026).

Rubio’s speech represents a powerful, if somewhat blunt, reminder of the enduring importance of transatlantic cooperation. However, it also highlights the profound challenges facing the alliance in an era of increasing geopolitical competition and internal divisions. The question remains: can the Western alliance adapt to a new reality, or will it succumb to the forces of fragmentation and decline? The success of the alliance may well depend on a willingness to engage in difficult conversations about shared identity, mutual obligations, and the fundamental values that underpin the enduring covenant between the United States and its European partners. What are your thoughts on this re-evaluation of Western civilization and the future of the Transatlantic alliance? Share your perspective below.