The air in Riyadh on February 2nd, 2026, carried a palpable sense of cautious optimism. Representatives from the Devawongse Varopakarn Institute of Foreign Affairs (DVIFA) and the International Studies Center (ISC) in Thailand, alongside counterparts from the Prince Saud Al Faisal Institute for Diplomatic Studies (IDS), convened for the second Saudi Arabia – Thailand Academic Dialogue. This seemingly niche event – focused on maritime security, economic realignment, and the role of middle powers – offers a critical lens through which to examine the evolving dynamics of Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The event, part of a broader initiative under the Saudi-Thai Coordination Council (STCC), underscores a fundamental shift in strategic thinking amidst escalating global instability and a fracturing of traditional alliances. This realignment demands a reassessment of Thailand’s foreign policy objectives and its future position within the regional order.
The stakes are significant. The global economy is experiencing a period of accelerated fragmentation, driven by geopolitical tensions, technological disruption, and shifts in global trade patterns. The rise of China, coupled with Russia’s assertive foreign policy and the ongoing instability in North Africa, has created a complex and often unpredictable security environment. Thailand, a strategically located nation with deep historical ties to both the Middle East and Southeast Asia, finds itself at a crossroads, attempting to navigate these turbulent currents. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) consistently points to a slowdown in global trade growth, with Southeast Asia experiencing a marginally lower rate of expansion compared to other emerging economies. This economic uncertainty is directly impacting investment flows and reinforcing the need for countries like Thailand to diversify their economic partnerships.
Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been shaped by a delicate balancing act. The establishment of the STCC in 2017, following decades of predominantly Western-aligned security interests, marked a significant shift. The dialogue itself represents a formalized channel for building understanding and cooperation, particularly around security concerns in the Malacca Strait – a vital shipping lane for global trade. Preceding this dialogue were several diplomatic incidents, including the 2023 naval standoff near the disputed maritime boundary in the South China Sea, further solidifying the need for bilateral collaborations on maritime security. Key stakeholders include the Saudi Arabian government, committed to diversifying its economy and reducing its reliance on oil; the Thai government, seeking to strengthen its regional influence and enhance its economic security; and regional organizations like ASEAN, attempting to maintain a degree of cohesion amidst diverging national interests. The involvement of academic institutions – the DVIFA, IDS, and potentially others – demonstrates a strategic investment in long-term diplomatic capacity building. “The intent is not simply to have conversations, but to foster a shared understanding of the challenges we face and to explore pathways to collaborative solutions,” explained Dr. Moshobab Alkahtani, Director-General of the IDS, during the opening remarks, a sentiment echoed by Ambassador Thanop Panyapattanakul. Furthermore, the increasing focus on “middle power” diplomacy—where Thailand attempts to mediate and influence regional dynamics—reflects a wider trend amongst nations seeking agency in a world dominated by major powers.
Recent Developments: Over the past six months, the dialogue’s focus has intensified on vulnerabilities related to cyber security and the potential for disruption to global supply chains. Intelligence reports suggest heightened activity by state-sponsored actors seeking to exploit vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure. Simultaneously, Thailand has been actively pursuing trade agreements with nations across Asia, aiming to mitigate the economic fallout from the global slowdown. The February 3rd meetings, involving Ambassador Panyapattanakul and Dean of DVIFA, revealed a deepening exploration of diplomatic training methodologies and potential areas for joint research. Team Thailand officials emphasized ongoing efforts to strengthen the Thailand-Saudi bilateral trade relationship, which, despite some headwinds, has seen a modest 3.2% increase in exports in 2025.
Future Impact & Insight: In the short term (next 6 months), the dialogue will likely continue to concentrate on maritime security, with a heightened emphasis on technological developments in this domain, specifically the development and deployment of autonomous maritime vessels. Long-term (5-10 years), we anticipate Thailand will continue to position itself as a bridge between East and West, leveraging its geographic location and diplomatic expertise to foster regional stability and economic growth. However, the ongoing geopolitical instability suggests a less predictable future. The rise of new security threats, combined with the potential for further fragmentation of the international order, will test Thailand’s strategic resilience. According to Professor James Dorsey, a specialist in energy security at SOAS University London, “Thailand’s success will hinge on its ability to remain adaptable and to cultivate a broader network of alliances beyond the traditional Saudi-centric approach.” Furthermore, the intensifying competition for influence in Southeast Asia – particularly between China and the United States – will undoubtedly shape Thailand’s foreign policy trajectory. The Kingdom faces the challenge of maintaining its neutrality while simultaneously safeguarding its economic interests and regional security. The shift in strategic focus to ‘middle powers’ could prove beneficial if Thailand can successfully navigate the tensions and facilitate constructive dialogue amongst major powers.
Call to Reflection: The Saudi Arabia – Thailand Academic Dialogue is more than just a diplomatic forum; it’s a microcosm of a global realignment. As nations grapple with a world of increasing uncertainty, the capacity to engage in constructive dialogue, foster mutual understanding, and build resilient alliances will be paramount. The success of initiatives like this dialogue serves as a crucial reminder: the path forward demands a commitment to diplomacy, a willingness to adapt, and a recognition that strategic alignment – built on shared interests and mutual respect – is the only viable strategy for navigating the turbulent waters ahead. The questions now become: how will Thailand’s leadership respond to the escalating pressures? And, will this dialogue model be replicated and expanded to address other critical geopolitical challenges, or will it remain a specialized exercise confined to the realm of academic exchange?