Key stakeholders involved include the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Royal Thai Army, UNHCR, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and a growing number of NGOs operating within Thailand. The Thai government, under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, has repeatedly framed the protocol as necessary to maintain order and prevent the escalation of instability. Motives appear to be multi-layered, encompassing legitimate security concerns regarding potential cross-border criminal activity and, increasingly, leveraging the situation to secure bilateral agreements with ASEAN partners regarding regional security. According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, “the Thai government’s framing of the ‘Resilience Protocol’ as a security measure has subtly shifted the narrative, making it harder to frame the situation as purely a humanitarian one.”
Data released by the UNHCR in December 2023 indicates approximately 88,000 IDPs remain in formal refugee camps across Thailand, with an estimated 61,000 residing in “protection zones” – designated areas offering basic assistance but lacking formal refugee status. This disparity highlights a critical challenge. While Thailand has facilitated the temporary employment of some IDPs outside these zones – a key component of the protocol – this process has been hampered by bureaucratic delays and a lack of legal recognition, effectively creating a precarious situation for those involved. Dr. Chayanthan Punnakul, a specialist in Southeast Asian political economy at Chulalongkorn University, noted, “The protocol’s success hinges on its ability to offer tangible legal protections and pathways to integration, something that has thus far remained elusive, fueling anxieties among the displaced population.”
Recent developments over the past six months have intensified the pressure on the protocol. Increased reports of human rights abuses within the camps, coupled with a growing lack of access for humanitarian organizations, have triggered international condemnation. The Thai government’s imposition of stricter border controls, including increased military presence and the utilization of technology to monitor border movements, has further restricted access for aid workers and severely curtailed the movement of IDPs. Data from the Bangkok Bank Institute reveals a 37% decrease in international donations specifically earmarked for the IDP response in Thailand during Q4 2023, largely attributed to concerns regarding bureaucratic obstacles and reported restrictions on aid delivery.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) likely scenario involves continued restrictions on humanitarian access, albeit potentially influenced by diplomatic pressure from ASEAN nations and the United States. The Thai government is expected to continue prioritizing border security, possibly further tightening regulations surrounding employment opportunities for IDPs. Long-term (5-10 years), the challenges remain substantial. The underlying instability in Myanmar suggests a prolonged displacement crisis, and Thailand’s approach will ultimately determine the long-term impact on regional stability, potentially creating a haven for illicit activities and exacerbating tensions along the Thai-Myanmar border.
The protracted situation in Thailand underscores a critical challenge: the intersection of humanitarian obligations and national security concerns. It’s a tension that demands careful consideration and a commitment to upholding international legal frameworks while pursuing effective strategies to mitigate the risks posed by a volatile regional environment. The Thai government’s actions require continuous scrutiny, and a broader dialogue is urgently needed to address the root causes of displacement and explore durable solutions for the displaced populations, fostering a more just and secure future for all involved.