The protracted conflict in Sudan, escalating from a military coup in April 2023, represents a deeply destabilizing force with ramifications extending far beyond the nation’s borders. The ongoing fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has triggered a humanitarian catastrophe, displacing millions and threatening regional security, making the situation a critical test for international alliances and the pursuit of stability across the Sahel. The sheer scale of displacement and the associated vulnerabilities are undeniably alarming, demanding immediate and sustained global attention.
The roots of this crisis are complex, interwoven with Sudan’s turbulent history of civil wars, authoritarian rule, and external interference. The 2019 revolution, which ousted longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, initially offered a glimmer of hope for democratic transition. However, disagreements over the integration of the RSF into a unified national army, coupled with power struggles between military factions, ultimately derailed the process. The RSF, commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), rose to prominence through its involvement in the Darfur conflict and has since consolidated significant economic and political influence. This internal power struggle, fueled by competition for control of resources like gold and oil, is exacerbated by regional and international actors, creating a volatile and unpredictable environment.
Key stakeholders include the United States, which has historically supported the SAF, and countries like Turkey and the UAE, which have provided material and logistical support to the RSF. China maintains significant economic ties with Sudan and has expressed a desire to play a role in mediating the conflict, albeit cautiously. The African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have attempted to facilitate negotiations, but their influence has been hampered by the deep divisions among the warring parties. A critical factor is the involvement of Russia’s Wagner Group, which has been reported to be supplying the RSF with weaponry and training, further complicating the dynamics. Recent reports indicate Wagner’s diminished presence, but its legacy continues to shape the conflict’s trajectory. Data from the Integrated Phase Implementation Unit (IPUI) estimates over 2.7 million internally displaced persons within Sudan, alongside a significant refugee population in neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan. This mass migration strains resources and fuels instability.
According to Dr. Fatima El-Masri, a specialist in Sudanese politics at the Institute for Strategic Studies, “The conflict isn’t simply a power grab; it’s a manifestation of decades-old grievances and the failure to build a truly inclusive and democratic Sudan. External support has only amplified these fault lines.” Dr. El-Masri further noted that "the lack of a robust regional peacekeeping force remains a critical impediment to any meaningful resolution."
The impact on the wider Sahel region is substantial. The chaos in Sudan creates a vacuum that extremist groups, including groups linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, are actively exploiting to expand their influence. The RSF’s presence in Darfur, in particular, poses a significant threat to fragile peace agreements and security in the region. Furthermore, the humanitarian crisis in Sudan is exacerbating existing challenges in neighboring countries, including food insecurity and displacement. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that over 18 million people in the region are facing food insecurity, largely due to disruptions to agricultural production and supply chains.
Over the past six months, the conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in heavy fighting in Khartoum and Darfur. Diplomatic efforts have largely stalled, and the prospects for a negotiated settlement remain bleak. The UN Security Council has authorized several resolutions imposing sanctions on individuals and entities involved in the conflict, but these measures have had limited impact. A major shift occurred in November 2023 when the US, under intense diplomatic pressure, announced it was formally recognizing the Sudanese Transition Government, a move intended to bolster the legitimacy of the civilian authorities. However, this decision has been met with criticism from some international actors, who argue that it undermines the prospects for a genuine political transition.
Looking ahead, short-term outcomes suggest a continuation of the current stalemate, with continued violence and displacement. The next six months will likely see a further deterioration of the humanitarian situation and an increased risk of extremist group activity. Long-term, the future of Sudan remains uncertain, contingent upon the ability of regional and international actors to forge a unified strategy and support a genuine peace process. The potential for a protracted civil war, with significant regional implications, is alarmingly high.
The situation in Sudan presents a complex and urgent challenge for the international community. The potential consequences of inaction – a prolonged conflict, regional instability, and a surge in extremism – are deeply troubling. A key consideration must be the establishment of a robust, internationally-backed peacekeeping force capable of enforcing a ceasefire and protecting civilians. Further, addressing the root causes of the conflict – including power-sharing arrangements, security sector reform, and economic development – will be crucial for achieving a lasting peace. As President Ibrahim Taha of the Sudanese Transition Government stated in a recent address, "We need a global partnership rooted in shared responsibility and a commitment to building a future where all Sudanese can live in peace and prosperity.” The need for collective action, informed by a deep understanding of Sudan's history and the complexities of the current crisis, is undeniable. The world watches, and the stakes – for Sudan, for the Sahel, and for global stability – are exceptionally high.