The persistent, escalating violence in Haiti, punctuated by recent massacres and widespread displacement, represents not simply a domestic crisis but a destabilizing force with profound implications for regional security and international alliances. The humanitarian catastrophe unfolding underscores a systemic failure rooted in decades of political instability, endemic corruption, and the resurgence of powerful gangs, demanding a coordinated and, frankly, desperate response. Addressing this situation requires a nuanced understanding of the historical factors at play, the complex motivations of key actors, and a pragmatic assessment of the achievable objectives.
The current crisis in Haiti is a culmination of long-standing issues. Following the collapse of Jean-Bertrand Aristide’s Lavalas government in 2004, a period of political turmoil ensued, culminating in the 2009 coup that ousted President René Préval. This instability created a power vacuum, exploited by rising criminal organizations that rapidly gained control over critical infrastructure – ports, fuel distribution, and communication networks – effectively using these assets to generate immense revenue through illicit activities. The 2018 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse further exacerbated the situation, triggering widespread protests, accusations of electoral fraud, and a subsequent escalation in gang violence. Prior to the 2018 assassination, the Haitian National Police (HNP) was chronically underfunded, poorly trained, and lacking the capacity to effectively confront the expanding criminal networks.
Key stakeholders in this evolving landscape include the United States, Canada, the European Union, the United Nations, and, critically, the Haitian government itself, alongside the aforementioned gangs – 40 Strong, G9, and others – who control vast swathes of the country. The United States, through the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, has been a long-standing player, initially supporting the 2000-2004 peacekeeping mission and subsequently engaging in targeted counter-narcotics efforts. Canada, similarly, has a history of involvement, primarily focused on disaster relief and, more recently, through its support for the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM) which preceded the Gang Suppression Force (GSF). The European Union has provided humanitarian assistance and continues to explore options for security sector reform. The United Nations, through MINUSTAH (United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti), previously played a critical role, though its mandate was significantly scaled back following the MSSM. Within Haiti, the transitional government, led by Ariel Henry, seeks to establish a functioning democratic process, having recently adopted an electoral decree to allow for the first elections in nearly a decade. However, the government’s authority is severely constrained by the pervasive influence of the gangs, undermining its ability to implement reforms or negotiate effectively with criminal groups.
According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, “Haiti’s security situation is characterized by a profound ‘security fragmentation,’ where state authority is routinely overridden by the actions of rival gangs.” (International Crisis Group, "Haiti: Beyond the Immediate Crisis," November 2025). This fragmentation makes any sustained security operation exceptionally challenging. The GSF, comprised of personnel from fifteen countries, is intended to provide a bolstered security presence, but its effectiveness is hampered by logistical difficulties, limited operational autonomy, and the deep-seated mistrust between the Haitian government and many of its international partners. Furthermore, the deployment of foreign forces, while providing immediate security improvements in targeted areas, risks further inflaming tensions and exacerbating existing grievances. “The fundamental problem remains the lack of a coherent and sustainable strategy for addressing the root causes of violence in Haiti,” explains Dr. Martine Leblanc, a specialist in Haitian security and political affairs at the University of Montreal. “Simply deploying more security forces will not solve the underlying issues of poverty, inequality, and weak governance.”
Recent developments over the past six months highlight the precariousness of the situation. In November 2025, a brazen attack by 40 Strong on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince resulted in the deaths of dozens of civilians, highlighting the gangs' increasing audacity and capacity to operate with impunity. Simultaneously, reports indicate a surge in gang recruitment, particularly among youth, driven by poverty and a lack of opportunity. There is a concerning trend of international actors, including private security firms, offering services to both the Haitian government and rival gangs, further complicating the security landscape. Data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reveals a significant increase in transnational organized crime activities in Haiti, including drug trafficking and illicit mining, underscoring the economic motivations driving gang violence. This has been fueled by the control of key maritime routes, used for trafficking narcotics, weapons, and other illicit goods.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) prospects remain bleak. The GSF will likely continue to operate in a limited capacity, primarily focused on securing key infrastructure and responding to immediate threats. However, without a broader strategy encompassing political dialogue, economic development, and institutional reform, the gangs are likely to maintain their grip on power. The long-term (5-10 years) outcome hinges on a fundamental shift in Haiti’s trajectory. A sustained, internationally-backed effort to address the underlying causes of instability, including promoting good governance, tackling corruption, and fostering economic opportunity, is essential. Failure to do so risks a prolonged state of ungoverned chaos, with devastating consequences for Haiti and the wider region. Without a collaborative approach, the “lazarus gambit” – the attempt to resurrect stability from the brink – is unlikely to succeed. The challenge lies in moving beyond short-term interventions towards a truly transformative and locally-driven process.