The collapse of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the ensuing conflict in Ethiopia has not simply revealed a nation grappling with civil war; it has exposed a decades-long trajectory of state weakness, autocratic rule, and a profoundly destabilizing political system built upon the foundations of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Examining the EPRDF’s rise and fall offers a crucial, and often overlooked, lens through which to understand current regional tensions and the broader dynamics of power in the Horn of Africa. The legacy of this centralized, personality-driven governance model continues to exert a powerful influence on Ethiopia’s trajectory and contributes to ongoing instability that reverberates across the region.
According to data released by the World Bank in 2023, Ethiopia’s institutional capacity scores – measuring factors like rule of law, regulatory quality, and voice and accountability – consistently lagged behind regional peers, particularly during the EPRDF’s dominance. This systematic failure to develop robust, accountable institutions created space for corruption, patronage, and ultimately, the consolidation of power within a small group of individuals, namely the TPLF, and, subsequently, the Prime Minister’s Office. The EPRDF’s strategy, characterized by rapid economic growth fueled by foreign investment and infrastructure development, was inextricably linked to this top-down, control-oriented approach to governance. This reliance on rapid, externally-driven growth created vulnerabilities that were exploited.
The Rise of the EPRDF and the Myth of Centralized Development
Established in 1991 following the overthrow of Mengistu Haile Mariam, the EPRDF—composed of four major ethnic groups— initially presented itself as a coalition committed to democratic transition and equitable development. However, within a decade, the TPLF, as the dominant force within the coalition, gradually established a system of ‘developmental authoritarianism.’ This involved leveraging control over key resources – particularly the nation’s gold reserves and telecommunications sector – to drive economic growth while simultaneously suppressing dissent and undermining democratic processes. ‘The EPRDF’s economic policy was rooted in a pragmatic, top-down approach that prioritized rapid growth over democratic accountability,’ explains Dr. Jemmaline Belay, a specialist in African governance at the University of Oxford, “This strategy, while initially successful in attracting investment and reducing poverty for some, was ultimately unsustainable due to its lack of transparency and accountability.”
The EPRDF’s strategy revolved around establishing state monopolies across critical sectors, offering preferential access to contracts and resources to those aligned with the TPLF. This created a network of loyalists and reinforced the party’s control. Simultaneously, the government invested heavily in infrastructure – roads, railways, and telecommunications – primarily utilizing Chinese financing. This investment, while boosting the economy, further solidified the government’s control over strategic assets. Data from the African Development Bank highlights a significant increase in public debt during this period, largely attributed to these large-scale infrastructure projects and loans, exacerbating underlying economic vulnerabilities.
From ‘Big Man’ Politics to State Failure
As the 2010s progressed, the system shifted dramatically towards what scholars have termed ‘Big Man’ politics, largely symbolized by the increasingly autocratic rule of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desale. The erosion of checks and balances, coupled with the consolidation of power within the Prime Minister’s Office, led to a complete breakdown of state capacity. The ruling party became less a governing coalition and more a personalized patronage network, with decisions increasingly driven by the whims of a single leader. This trend was further amplified by the decline of independent media, the suppression of civil society organizations, and the systematic persecution of political opponents.
The failure of the Ethiopian government to effectively manage its ethnic diversity, coupled with the TPLF’s persistent resistance to sharing power and resources, created a deep-seated political crisis. This culminated in the TPLF’s armed rebellion in 2019, triggering a devastating civil war that continues to destabilize the region. ‘The EPRDF’s approach fundamentally ignored the critical need to develop effective institutions capable of mediating ethnic tensions and ensuring equitable access to resources,’ argues Dr. Solomon Gebrehiwot, whose research, as outlined in ‘The Story of Ethiopian Governance,’ meticulously documents this trajectory. “The reliance on force and repression, rather than dialogue and inclusive governance, proved disastrous in the long run.”
Regional Implications and Short-Term Outlook
The conflict in Ethiopia has profound implications for regional stability. The humanitarian crisis, fueled by widespread displacement and food insecurity, has created a significant refugee flow, placing immense pressure on neighboring countries, particularly Sudan and Kenya. The ongoing violence has also created a security vacuum, attracting extremist groups and contributing to the proliferation of illicit arms. Furthermore, the Ethiopian government’s actions, including alleged human rights abuses, have strained relations with key international partners, including the United States and the European Union. ‘The instability in Ethiopia represents a significant challenge to regional security,’ observes Dr. Fatima Hassan, a Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group. “The potential for spillover effects—including the exacerbation of existing conflicts and the spread of instability—is a major concern.”
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued fighting between Ethiopian forces and TPLF remnants, alongside the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The international community’s response will be critical, with efforts focused on delivering humanitarian aid, facilitating peace negotiations, and holding perpetrators of human rights abuses accountable. Longer-term, rebuilding state capacity and establishing a genuinely inclusive political system will require a fundamental shift in governance, prioritizing democratic principles, the rule of law, and respect for human rights. Addressing the underlying ethnic tensions and fostering a shared national identity will be crucial for ensuring long-term stability. The challenges are immense, but the imperative for a peaceful and prosperous future for Ethiopia, and for the broader Horn of Africa, demands nothing less.