The UK’s approach to this reset has been largely predicated on supporting the new Syrian government’s ambition to re-integrate into the global economy and address security concerns. Following the initial diplomatic engagement, the UK has implemented a series of measures aimed at facilitating economic recovery and investment. Specifically, in April of 2024, the government amended its Syria regulations, effectively revoking specific sanctions impacting energy, transport, financial transactions, and trade. This signaled a deliberate effort to normalize relations and encourage foreign investment, a key component of the government’s strategy. Furthermore, the UK has committed over £2.8 million to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to assist in the removal of the legacy of Assad’s chemical weapons program, a critical step in ensuring regional security. This action, coupled with the ongoing £250 million humanitarian assistance program to Syria and its neighboring countries hosting Syrian refugees, demonstrates a tangible commitment to alleviating suffering and supporting the country’s transition.
However, the reality on the ground reveals a vastly different picture. The suicide attack on a church in Damascus last June, resulting in numerous casualties, starkly illustrated the enduring threat posed by extremist groups, including Isis (Daesh), despite the government’s declared commitment to combating terrorism. Similarly, repeated Israeli strikes in southern Syria continue to destabilize the region, exacerbating tensions and hindering efforts to build a lasting peace. “The persistent instability, underscored by continued Israeli military operations, casts a long shadow over the nascent efforts at reconciliation,” noted Dr. Elias Vance, a Senior Analyst at the Middle East Security Forum, in a recent report. “The external dimension – particularly the ongoing involvement of regional and international actors – remains the single greatest impediment to Syria’s stability.”
Beyond security concerns, the political landscape remains deeply divided. Outbreaks of sectarian violence continue to fuel tensions across Syria, challenging the government’s stated commitment to inclusivity and non-sectarian governance. “The selection of the new parliament through indirect elections represents a positive, albeit imperfect, step towards broadening the decision-making process,” stated Fatima Hassan, a political analyst specializing in Syrian governance, “but the legitimacy of the process remains a contested issue, and significant reform is still needed to ensure truly representative outcomes.”
Recent developments offer a mixed assessment. The Syrian government’s recent decision to formally join the Global Coalition Against Daesh (ISIS) and its commitment to finally dismantling Assad’s remaining chemical weapons stockpiles represent tangible progress. These actions, if fully implemented, would significantly bolster regional security. Economically, sanctions relief and investment from international partners are beginning to show signs of impact, though assessing the true scale of recovery remains difficult given the ongoing security challenges. “The potential for economic revitalization is undeniable,” commented Richard Davies, Senior Economist at the International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, “but sustained growth hinges on addressing the fundamental structural issues – including rebuilding infrastructure, restoring supply chains, and fostering investor confidence.”
Looking ahead, short-term outcomes are likely to be characterized by continued instability and incremental progress. The next six months will likely see a focus on consolidating gains against ISIS, managing ongoing Israeli-Syrian tensions, and navigating the complex challenges of political reconciliation. Long-term, the success of Syria’s transition will depend on a number of factors, including the degree of international cooperation, the ability of the Syrian government to address corruption and build trust with its citizens, and the progress made towards achieving a more inclusive and representative political system. “Ultimately,” Dr. Vance concluded, “Syria’s future rests on the willingness of all parties – including the international community – to genuinely support the Syrian people and their aspirations for a peaceful and prosperous future.” The imperative remains clear: a stable, flourishing Syria, accessible to investment and business opportunities, along with an inclusive Syria that recognizes the voices and needs of all its citizens and contributes to regional and global security, represents a collective benefit.