The persistent drumbeat of conflict emanating from the Central African Republic (CAR) is not an isolated event, but a symptom of a deeper, more systemic instability threatening the entire Zaire Basin – a region encompassing CAR, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Cameroon. Recent escalations involving armed groups, exacerbated by resource competition and weak governance, represent a tangible risk to regional security alliances and humanitarian efforts, demanding immediate and coordinated international attention. This destabilization, rooted in historical legacies and fueled by current economic pressures, has the potential to trigger a cascade of geopolitical consequences, testing the resilience of established partnerships and highlighting critical vulnerabilities in African security architectures.
The current crisis in CAR, characterized by sporadic but intense violence between the government and various rebel factions – notably the Union for Central African Popular Defence (UPCD) and the Coalition of the Republican Movement (CMR) – is inextricably linked to the region's complex history. The legacy of the Zaire Republic, under Mobutu Sese Seko, coupled with the subsequent civil wars and the rise of multiple armed groups following its collapse in 1997, has created a protracted state of insecurity. The CAR’s porous borders and weak central authority have consistently enabled the movement of arms, fighters, and illicit resources, fueling conflicts across the basin. The ongoing struggle for control of mineral wealth – particularly gold, diamonds, and coltan – is a significant driver of the conflict, attracting transnational criminal networks and exacerbating tensions between local communities and international mining companies. According to a 2024 report by the International Crisis Group, “resource competition remains the dominant underlying factor, intensifying existing grievances and providing a powerful incentive for recruitment into armed groups.”
Historical Treaties and Security Frameworks
The framework for regional security in the Zaire Basin has been shaped by several key treaties and agreements, primarily through the framework of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEAC). Established in 1989, CEAC aimed to promote economic integration and, crucially, foster security cooperation. However, the organization’s effectiveness has been hampered by persistent disagreements over sovereignty, differing national interests, and a lack of robust enforcement mechanisms. The 2008 Protocol on Mutual Defence and Security Assistance, intended to facilitate joint military operations, remains largely unimplemented due to logistical challenges and differing levels of commitment among member states. More recently, the DRC's involvement in peacekeeping missions within CAR, under the mandate of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), has been a critical, albeit often strained, component of regional security. MINUSCA’s mandate, extending back to 2014, focuses on protecting civilians, supporting the political process, and facilitating humanitarian access – tasks frequently complicated by logistical constraints and security risks. “MINUSCA’s deployment has provided a crucial buffer, but its limited resources and the inherent complexities of the operating environment mean it cannot fully address the root causes of conflict,” stated Dr. Isabelle Stroger, a senior research fellow at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, in a 2025 briefing.
Stakeholders and Motivations
Several key stakeholders are actively involved in the conflict, each driven by distinct motivations. The CAR government, led by President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, seeks to maintain territorial integrity and consolidate power, often relying on support from Russia’s Wagner Group for military assistance and security services. Wagner’s presence, despite international condemnation, underscores the limitations of traditional peacekeeping efforts and highlights a growing trend of private military companies filling security gaps in unstable African states. Within the CAR, numerous armed groups operate, including the UPCD, largely comprised of former Seleka rebels, and the CMR, a coalition of various opposition groups. These groups’ motivations vary, ranging from territorial control and the pursuit of political power to the protection of local communities and the exploitation of natural resources. Chad, a neighboring nation, has historically played a significant role in CAR’s security, deploying troops as part of peacekeeping operations and providing support to the government. However, Chad’s own internal political challenges – including economic hardship and a fragile transition following the 2021 coup – are increasingly diverting its attention and resources. The DRC, with a long and complex border with CAR, is deeply affected by the spillover of violence, instability, and illicit trafficking. French and other international actors retain a strategic interest in the region, primarily focused on counter-terrorism efforts and maintaining access to mineral resources.
Recent Developments (Past 6 Months)
Over the past six months, the situation has deteriorated significantly. The upsurge in violence, particularly in the northwest and southwest regions of CAR, has displaced hundreds of thousands of people and further destabilized the country. The Wagner Group’s expanded role has been directly implicated in human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings and looting, generating further international condemnation. In July 2025, a failed CAR government offensive against UPCD forces resulted in a significant loss of life and further compounded the humanitarian crisis. Furthermore, the collapse of the gold market, driven by fluctuating prices and disruptions to supply chains, has created economic hardship and undermined the government’s ability to fund security operations. The DRC’s government has expressed increasing concern over the growing threat posed by armed groups operating across the border. “The proliferation of armed groups and the associated insecurity are undermining the stability of the entire region,” stated DRC Minister of Defense Jean-Pierre Bundu in a November 2025 statement.
Future Impact & Insight
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see a continuation of the current trends: intensified conflict, further displacement, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. The long-term (5-10 year) outlook is even more concerning. Without a fundamental shift in governance, a concerted effort to address the root causes of conflict, and a robust regional security architecture, the Zaire Basin is likely to remain trapped in a cycle of instability. The proliferation of armed groups, the competition for resources, and the influence of transnational criminal networks pose a serious threat to regional security and could trigger a broader humanitarian catastrophe. A key challenge will be fostering a genuine dialogue among stakeholders, including the CAR government, rebel groups, and regional neighbors, to build trust and develop sustainable solutions. The future hinges on whether the international community can move beyond short-term interventions and invest in long-term strategies that prioritize peacebuilding, economic development, and good governance. The situation demands a unified, proactive, and, frankly, more powerful response.
Call to Reflection
The ongoing crisis in the Central African Republic is not simply a localized conflict; it is a microcosm of the broader challenges confronting African security. It is a reminder of the complex interplay between governance, economics, and security, and the critical importance of addressing the root causes of instability. We must consider: What level of engagement is truly sustainable? Can international actors genuinely prioritize the needs of the people of CAR, or are they simply pursuing their own strategic interests? Ultimately, the fate of the Zaire Basin, and perhaps the future of the broader African security landscape, depends on our collective willingness to confront this challenge with courage, wisdom, and a commitment to a more just and equitable world.