Indonesia’s engagement with the Middle East, traditionally focused on economic partnerships and humanitarian aid, is undergoing a subtle but potentially significant shift, driven largely by developments within its eastern provinces and the broader strategic imperative of expanding Indonesia’s diplomatic footprint. Recent initiatives, exemplified by a public lecture series held in Jayapura, Papua, underscore a deliberate effort to cultivate regional expertise and integrate diverse perspectives into Indonesia’s foreign policy decision-making. This proactive approach, focused on understanding the nuances of the Middle East through the lens of a geographically distant region – Papua – reveals a powerful, if somewhat unexpected, element of Indonesia’s strategic calculation. The event, examining “Middle East Dynamics in Indonesia’s Diplomacy,” highlights a nascent "Pacific Pivot" strategy with far-reaching implications.
The public lecture in Jayapura, Papua, on November 18, 2025, represented more than simply an academic exercise. It was a critical component of a broader governmental strategy to diversify Indonesia's diplomatic intelligence and to leverage unique regional experiences to inform its engagement in a volatile geopolitical environment. The emphasis on Papua, an area historically marginalized and rich in diverse cultural and economic assets, reflects a calculated attempt to broaden Indonesia's strategic horizon. The region’s fisheries sector, a significant contributor to the Papuan economy, represents a potential entry point for engagement with Middle Eastern markets, a concept explored during the event.
Historical context reveals a long-standing Indonesian interest in the Middle East, primarily rooted in economic opportunities – oil and gas, trade – and strategic alliances, particularly with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, the country’s foreign policy has largely been shaped by its core interests in Southeast Asia. The current shift, manifested through initiatives like the Jayapura lecture, signals a recognition of the need for a more nuanced approach, particularly given Indonesia’s evolving role as a global power. The establishment of the Foreign Policy Strategy Agency (BSKLN) and its collaborative partnerships with institutions like Cenderawasih University demonstrate a commitment to developing a skilled diplomatic cadre capable of interpreting complex global events.
Key stakeholders include the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, of course, but also increasingly, universities like Cenderawasih University, which are tasked with generating strategic insights. The motivations driving this shift are multifaceted: maintaining regional stability, securing Indonesia’s economic interests, and bolstering its position within international forums. “Indonesia's strategic calculus requires understanding the underlying dynamics that shape the Middle East, not just accepting them as a set of predetermined outcomes,” stated Dr. Basir Rohrohmana, Vice Rector IV for Cooperation and Planning, at the event. This reflects a deliberate effort to move beyond passive observation and towards active engagement.
Data from the World Bank indicates that Indonesia’s trade with the Middle East, while currently modest, is projected to increase significantly over the next decade, driven largely by rising demand for commodities and manufactured goods. Simultaneously, the Jakarta Post reported in August 2025 that Indonesia’s investment in the Gulf region had grown by 18% year-on-year, primarily in the energy and tourism sectors. This economic momentum provides a compelling rationale for a deeper, more strategic engagement.
However, significant challenges remain. The geopolitical instability in the Middle East—the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen, the shifting alliances between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the persistent threat of terrorism—pose considerable risks. Furthermore, Indonesia’s limited diplomatic capacity and relatively small economic footprint constrain its ability to exert influence on the global stage. "Indonesia needs to be realistic about its influence in the Middle East,” explained Vahd Nabyl Achmad Mulachela, Head of the Center for Policy Strategy for the Asia Pacific and Africa Region. "We must focus on building strong relationships and promoting mutually beneficial cooperation, rather than attempting to play a dominant role."
Recent developments, such as Indonesia's increased support for a negotiated settlement in the Yemeni conflict (despite reservations about international intervention) and its participation in multilateral efforts to combat terrorism, demonstrate a willingness to take a more active role. The “Ngobras Diplomacy” initiative, an interactive program designed to engage grassroots perspectives, including those of Papuan students, further highlights Indonesia’s commitment to incorporating diverse viewpoints into its diplomatic strategy. The program’s focus on potential fisheries exports to Middle Eastern markets is a pragmatic recognition of a potential economic opportunity.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) likely scenario involves continued efforts to deepen existing partnerships and explore new economic opportunities. Indonesia’s role in regional peacebuilding initiatives, particularly in the Middle East, is expected to expand. The long-term (5-10 years) outcome hinges on Indonesia’s ability to translate its strategic insights into tangible influence. If Indonesia can successfully navigate the region's complexities and cultivate robust relationships, it could establish itself as a vital bridge between East and West. However, given the inherent risks and uncertainties, a cautious and pragmatic approach is crucial. “Indonesia’s ability to remain neutral and prioritize its national interests will be a key determinant of its success,” noted a geopolitical analyst at the ISEAS-Yusuf Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Ultimately, Indonesia’s “Pacific Pivot” – this deliberate expansion of its strategic focus – is a reflection of the country’s growing global ambitions. The inclusion of a geographically distant region like Papua, and the incorporation of diverse perspectives into its foreign policy, suggests a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom and pursue innovative solutions. The event in Jayapura serves as a powerful reminder that strategic thinking can emerge from the most unexpected places, and that true diplomatic strength lies not just in power, but in understanding. The question remains: can this newly cultivated strategic intelligence translate into a tangible shift in Indonesia's role on the world stage, or will it remain a valuable, if ultimately peripheral, element of its foreign policy?