Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has often prioritized bilateral relationships, particularly with China and the United States, sometimes to the detriment of cohesive ASEAN participation. The 2009 “Bangkok Security Summit,” where Thailand unilaterally invited key regional and international actors, demonstrated this tendency. Furthermore, the country’s approach to territorial disputes in the South China Sea – primarily focused on bilateral dialogues with China – has at times strained ASEAN consensus-building mechanisms. Data from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) reveals a widening trade gap between Thailand and China, highlighting the vulnerability to over-reliance on a single economic partner.
Key stakeholders involved include, alongside the Thai government, ASEAN member states – particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam – all vying for leadership within the bloc, and major international partners: the European Union (EU) pursuing the Thailand-EU Free Trade Agreement (TFEA), and increasingly, China, seeking to solidify its economic dominance in Southeast Asia. The EU’s support for Thailand’s TFEA negotiations is predicated on Thailand’s commitment to meeting OECD governance standards, a critical point of contention. “The strategic value of Thailand to the EU lies not just in its market access, but also in its potential as a bridge between the EU’s broader engagement in Southeast Asia and its overall strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific,” notes Dr. Anya Sharma, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusuff Town Centre in Singapore.
Recent developments over the past six months illustrate the evolving nature of this strategy. Thailand’s persistent reluctance to fully commit to a rules-based maritime dispute resolution framework within ASEAN, particularly regarding the South China Sea, has fueled tensions within the bloc. Negotiations on the TFEA have been characterized by protracted discussions concerning regulatory alignment and intellectual property rights, demonstrating the considerable hurdles to membership. Furthermore, Thailand’s growing engagement with China, particularly in infrastructure projects funded through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has prompted cautious observation from some ASEAN members. A report by Control Risks Group highlights that “Thailand’s ambiguous stance on BRI participation presents a potential vulnerability, particularly given China’s increasingly assertive diplomatic and economic influence.”
Looking ahead, the next 6-12 months will be crucial. Thailand’s success in securing TFEA accession hinges on addressing remaining concerns regarding regulatory transparency and strengthening its commitment to OECD best practices. The country’s position on the South China Sea remains a key determinant of regional stability, with potential implications for broader US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. Long-term (5-10 years), Thailand’s trajectory will be shaped by its ability to navigate these competing priorities. If Thailand can successfully balance its regional commitments with its OECD ambitions, it could emerge as a significant economic and political player, bolstering ASEAN’s stability and fostering sustainable growth. However, a failure to achieve meaningful progress on either front risks further marginalization and a weakening of Thailand’s strategic influence.