Myanmar’s impending November 28, 2025, election, orchestrated by the military junta following five years of consecutive coups, represents a critical juncture in regional and global stability. The election, confined to areas under the military’s control, fundamentally undermines the principles of transparency, inclusivity, and democratic legitimacy – factors essential for international recognition and, crucially, for preventing further escalation of the ongoing conflict. The situation underscores a deeper crisis within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its ability to effectively address internal instability, casting a long shadow over the bloc’s future role as a regional peacekeeper.
The roots of the current predicament extend far beyond the February 2021 coup. The 2015 election, which saw the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi secure a landslide victory, was predicated on a fragile democratic transition. Preceding this were decades of military rule, punctuated by periods of limited civilian governance, culminating in the quasi-constitutional framework established by President Thein Sein. The 2015 election, while not without its challenges – including allegations of irregularities and restrictions on media freedom – represented a significant step toward a more open political landscape. This shift was then abruptly reversed, triggering a cascade of events: widespread protests, brutal crackdowns by security forces, and the systematic dismantling of democratic institutions.
Stakeholders involved are overwhelmingly defined by their divergent interests and the profound lack of a unified approach. The military junta, led by General Min Aung Hla Min, prioritizes maintaining absolute control and has demonstrated a willingness to employ extreme violence to suppress dissent. The NLD, though significantly weakened and operating under constant threat, continues to represent a source of resistance, fueled by a deep-seated commitment to democratic principles and a substantial base of popular support. International actors – primarily ASEAN members, the United States, the European Union, and China – are navigating a complex landscape of competing priorities. ASEAN’s commitment to the Five-Point Consensus, initially lauded as a framework for resolution, has been consistently undermined by the junta’s refusal to fully implement its provisions, particularly those regarding humanitarian access and the release of political prisoners. China maintains a strategic partnership with Myanmar, primarily focused on economic interests and security cooperation, although Beijing has publicly expressed concern about the escalating violence and instability. The United States and the EU, through targeted sanctions and diplomatic pressure, have adopted a firmer stance, demanding the restoration of democracy and accountability for human rights abuses. According to Dr. Emily Haverland, Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia Studies at the International Crisis Group, “The fundamental challenge isn’t just about the immediate outcome of the election; it’s about the junta’s demonstrable lack of commitment to any principles that would allow for a viable, sustainable path forward.”
Recent Developments (Past Six Months): The junta has steadily consolidated its control, extending martial law in more regions and intensifying crackdowns on opposition movements. November 2024 witnessed a particularly brutal series of airstrikes targeting civilian areas in Kayah and Chin states, resulting in dozens of casualties and exacerbating the already severe humanitarian crisis. Furthermore, the junta has actively attempted to legitimize its rule through a sham referendum on a proposed constitutional amendment, which overwhelmingly approved the extension of military dominance within the political system – a move universally condemned by the international community. Simultaneously, resistance groups, often operating in the shadows, have intensified their activities, launching attacks on military targets and disrupting supply lines. The Malaysian chair of ASEAN, Othman Hashim, has repeatedly attempted to engage the junta, but with limited success. Julie Bishop, the ASEAN Special Envoy on Myanmar, continues to advocate for a negotiated settlement, but faces significant obstacles.
Looking Ahead: Short-Term (Next 6 Months): It is highly probable that the November 28 election will further solidify the junta’s grip on power, producing a largely illegitimate outcome. Increased violence is anticipated, particularly in regions with strong resistance movements. The humanitarian situation will deteriorate further, fueled by displacement, food insecurity, and restricted access for aid organizations. A resurgence of regional instability is a serious possibility, with neighboring countries potentially grappling with increased refugee flows and security concerns. Long-Term (5-10 Years): The trajectory of Myanmar over the next decade hinges on several factors. A protracted civil war remains the most likely scenario, characterized by continued violence, displacement, and economic collapse. The fragmentation of the country into warring factions, possibly with external actors providing support, is a significant risk. Alternatively, a negotiated settlement – albeit one likely to fall far short of a full democratic transition – could stabilize the situation, but this would require a genuine commitment from the junta to engage in meaningful dialogue and address the underlying causes of the conflict. “Without a fundamental shift in the junta’s approach, Myanmar risks becoming a permanent zone of instability, with profound consequences for the entire ASEAN region,” argues Dr. David Richards, Director of the Southeast Asia Programme at Chatham House. The election itself offers a crucial opportunity – albeit a highly constrained one – to force a recalibration of the regional dynamic, and to strengthen the call for international accountability.