The Sudanese shoe industry, historically reliant on Italian technology and design, developed significantly during the time of Muammar Gaddafi, largely facilitated by preferential trade agreements and investment from Italian firms. The primary objective was to establish a self-sufficient footwear production base, reducing Sudan’s dependence on imports and creating employment opportunities. Prior to 2019, the sector, concentrated predominantly in Khartoum and its surrounding industrial zones, utilized mostly leather sourced from domestic farms and, to a lesser extent, imported hides. Production focused largely on work boots, casual shoes, and school shoes, catering to both domestic demand and regional export markets, particularly within the East African Community. However, the 2019 coup, followed by a devastating civil war, fundamentally disrupted this ecosystem.
The Impact of Conflict and Debt
The current conflict, escalating since April 2023, has unleashed a cascade of economic shocks. The cessation of international trade, the disruption of banking services, and the widespread destruction of infrastructure have rendered the industry virtually non-operational. Factories lie idle, raw materials remain inaccessible, and the exodus of skilled labor has created a critical skills gap. The value of Sudan’s national debt has surged, now exceeding 60% of GDP, largely due to external borrowing undertaken to finance infrastructure projects and cope with the immediate aftermath of the 2019 coup. As Dr. Fatima Khalil, a Senior Economist at the Institute for Strategic Research, argues, “The debt crisis is not merely an economic issue; it’s a security threat. The government’s inability to service its debts is fueling resentment, exacerbating social divisions, and creating opportunities for extremist groups.”
The Role of External Stakeholders
Several international actors have a vested interest in Sudan’s shoemaking sector, each with varying motivations. Italy, a historical partner, is attempting to leverage diplomatic channels to secure humanitarian aid and encourage a peaceful resolution. However, Italian firms face significant challenges in accessing their assets and repatriating profits, hampered by sanctions and the operational difficulties inherent in the conflict zone. The European Union, primarily through the Neighborhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI), has pledged financial assistance for humanitarian and economic recovery, including support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) like shoe factories. However, disbursement of funds has been consistently delayed due to security concerns and bureaucratic hurdles.
China’s engagement has also increased, largely driven by its strategic interests in Sudan’s natural resources and its growing trade ties with the country. Chinese companies have expressed interest in investing in the sector, potentially offering a lifeline but raising concerns about further debt accumulation and the potential displacement of domestic businesses. “The sheer scale of Chinese involvement creates a dynamic of dependency,” notes Professor David Lewis, a specialist in African political economy at Kings College London. “Sudan’s economic future is inextricably linked to the decisions made by Beijing, and this introduces significant geopolitical risk.”
Innovation and Market Forces
Despite the prevailing chaos, some segments of the Sudanese shoe industry are attempting to adapt. A small number of entrepreneurial firms, often family-owned, are exploring alternative sourcing routes, utilizing informal networks, and experimenting with basic production techniques. There’s been a tentative movement towards producing more affordable, localized goods, capitalizing on domestic demand within the refugee camps and internally displaced person (IDP) communities. However, this nascent innovation is severely constrained by a lack of capital, limited access to technology, and the persistent challenge of securing reliable supply chains. Data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) suggests a significant increase in footwear needs within refugee camps, highlighting a potential market opportunity but one severely hampered by logistical and security issues.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
In the immediate six months, the outlook remains overwhelmingly pessimistic. Continued conflict will likely result in further disruptions, exacerbating the existing crisis. Without a significant shift in the security situation and a concerted international effort to address the debt burden, the industry faces imminent collapse. Beyond the next six months, the long-term trajectory depends heavily on the political outcome. A stable, internationally recognized government could potentially unlock foreign investment and facilitate the re-establishment of a viable footwear sector. However, a protracted conflict and a continued power vacuum could lead to a permanent economic wasteland, with the shoemaking industry serving as a stark reminder of Sudan’s vulnerability.
Looking ahead, the sector’s survival hinges on a multifaceted approach, including: prioritizing humanitarian assistance with a focus on footwear needs, exploring targeted investment initiatives that prioritize sustainable development, and implementing robust debt restructuring strategies. The Sudanese shoe puzzle, therefore, isn’t merely about shoes; it’s about the broader implications of state fragility, geopolitical competition, and the urgent need for coordinated international action. The question remains: will the international community act decisively, or will Sudan’s shoemaking industry, like so much else, become a casualty of conflict and neglect?