The situation in the Sahel, already grappling with drought, poverty, and weak governance, has deteriorated significantly in the last six months. Armed groups, many linked to extremist ideologies but increasingly driven by local grievances stemming from STEG-related disruptions, control vast swathes of territory. Recent data from the International Crisis Group indicates a 30% increase in armed group activity compared to 2022, with conflicts escalating in the border regions between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The root cause, analysts suggest, lies in the program’s emphasis on rapid, top-down economic development—a strategy that, without adequate consideration of local contexts and existing social structures, has created an environment ripe for manipulation and conflict.
Historical Context: The Seeds of Discontent
The STEG program, launched with the explicit aim of diversifying economies beyond traditional agriculture, faced similar criticisms during its initial phases in other African nations. However, the scale of implementation and the specific methodologies employed in the Sahel—including the establishment of large-scale infrastructure projects, cash transfers, and support for private sector development—proved particularly problematic. Prior to the program’s arrival, local communities relied heavily on subsistence farming and informal trade networks. The imposition of market-oriented approaches, coupled with fluctuating commodity prices and limited access to credit, disrupted these systems. Furthermore, the influx of external actors – international NGOs, foreign investors, and government officials – introduced new power dynamics and often undermined traditional authority structures. As Dr. Fatima Diallo, a Senior Research Fellow at the African Centre for Strategic Studies, stated, “The program, in its ambition, failed to adequately account for the pre-existing social contracts and power relations within these communities. It essentially overlaid a new system without understanding how to integrate it into the existing framework, leading to profound resentment.”
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several key actors contribute to this complex web of instability. The Malian government, weakened by years of conflict and facing significant internal divisions, has struggled to exert control over vast territories, often relying on foreign military assistance – primarily from Russia through the Wagner Group – to maintain stability. In Burkina Faso and Niger, military coups in recent years have further compounded the situation, creating a power vacuum that armed groups have exploited. Beyond the state actors, transnational criminal networks are deeply entrenched, exploiting the security vacuum to facilitate illicit trade in gold, weapons, and drugs. The motivations of the various armed groups are increasingly multifaceted, shifting beyond purely ideological commitments to include control over resources, local patronage, and exploiting the broader regional instability. According to a report by the Control Risks Group, “Many of these groups are now operating as quasi-states, controlling territory and extracting revenue, which presents a formidable challenge to both regional and international security efforts.”
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, the situation has witnessed a troubling intensification of conflict. The rapid spread of the Islamic State in the Sahel (ISS) group into Mali and Burkina Faso poses a serious threat to regional security. The collapse of the military junta in Niger triggered an immediate intervention by ECOWAS, leading to the imposition of sanctions and ultimately, the attempted coup in July 2023. Simultaneously, the Wagner Group’s influence has grown, particularly in Mali, where it provides security assistance but also contributes to human rights abuses and exacerbates existing tensions. Crucially, the recent deterioration in relations between Russia and France, and the subsequent withdrawal of French troops, has created a power void that has been rapidly filled by various actors, contributing to an increased sense of uncertainty and vulnerability.
Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts
In the short term (next 6 months), the conflict is likely to intensify, particularly in areas bordering Mali and Burkina Faso. We can anticipate further displacement of populations, increased humanitarian needs, and a continued rise in armed group activity. The risk of a full-scale regional conflict remains high. In the longer term (5–10 years), the Sahel faces a profound and potentially irreversible transformation. The displacement of large populations will lead to increased pressure on resources and infrastructure, potentially triggering further conflict over water and arable land. The region’s governance structures are unlikely to recover quickly, and the risk of state failure will remain significant. The spread of extremist ideologies will continue, fueled by disillusionment and lack of opportunity. As Professor David Albright of the International Institute for Strategic Studies notes, “Without a fundamental shift in development strategies—one that prioritizes local ownership, respects existing social structures, and addresses the root causes of poverty and inequality—the Sahel risks becoming a permanently failed state, a magnet for instability, and a source of prolonged global insecurity.”
Reflection and Debate
The case of the Sahel highlights the critical importance of context-specific development strategies. It serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of imposing externally driven solutions without fully understanding local realities. The question now is not just how to achieve economic growth, but how to achieve it in a way that is sustainable, equitable, and respects the dignity and agency of the people who will live with its consequences. What measures can be taken to address the unintended consequences of development interventions? How can local communities be empowered to shape their own futures? These are questions that require urgent and honest discussion, and a commitment to a more just and sustainable path forward.