Thailand’s sustained engagement within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has long been a cornerstone of its foreign policy, reflecting historical ties, shared strategic interests, and a commitment to regional stability. The upcoming designation of 2026 as the “ASEAN-India Year of Maritime Cooperation,” prominently highlighted during the 22nd ASEAN-India Summit in Kuala Lumpur on October 26, 2025, presents both opportunities and challenges for the nation. This initiative, jointly declared alongside the conclusion of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) Review, signals a significant shift in Bangkok’s strategic calculus, demanding careful navigation of evolving geopolitical currents.
Historical Context and Strategic Alignment
Thailand’s historical alignment with ASEAN stems from the region’s shared vulnerabilities – primarily maritime security and economic interdependence. The Bangkok Treaty of 1967, establishing ASEAN, was rooted in a desire to collectively address external pressures, notably from communist powers during the Cold War. Over the decades, ASEAN has evolved, adopting the “ASEAN Way” – a principle of consensus-based decision-making prioritizing non-interference in member states’ internal affairs. This approach, while fostering stability, has also occasionally hampered effective responses to regional crises.
The 2026 Maritime Cooperation Year: Scope and Drivers
The declaration of 2026 as the ASEAN-India Year of Maritime Cooperation is driven by several converging factors. Firstly, the increasingly assertive behavior of China in the South China Sea necessitates strengthened regional cooperation. India, recognizing this threat, has stepped up its naval presence in the area and is actively promoting a rules-based order. Secondly, India’s own economic growth and expanding maritime interests – particularly in the Indian Ocean – have created a natural synergy with ASEAN nations. Thirdly, the conclusion of the AITIGA Review indicates a desire to further deepen economic ties, leveraging India’s market access and investment potential. According to data from the ASEAN Secretariat, bilateral trade between Thailand and India has increased by 18% over the past five years, suggesting a strong underlying trend.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several key stakeholders are involved. Thailand, under Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, seeks to maintain ASEAN centrality, leveraging its diplomatic experience to shape regional norms. India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is pursuing a “Neighborhood First” policy, aiming to strengthen ties with its immediate neighbors. Other ASEAN members – Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam – will be influenced by their own national interests, particularly regarding resource access and security. Furthermore, the evolving dynamics within the broader Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) – involving the United States, Japan, and Australia – are indirectly influencing Thailand’s strategic positioning, with potential for increased collaboration on maritime security issues. “Thailand’s ability to manage its relationships with both China and India will be crucial in 2026,” remarked Dr. Ananda Vikander, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, in a recent interview. “The key will be balancing economic opportunities with the necessary safeguards for sovereignty and regional stability.”
Short-Term and Long-Term Implications
In the short term (next 6 months), Thailand can expect increased diplomatic activity focused on maritime security dialogues, joint naval exercises, and the promotion of collaborative infrastructure projects. However, challenges remain, including navigating differing views within ASEAN on the South China Sea dispute and ensuring effective implementation of the AITIGA. Longer-term (5-10 years), Thailand’s alignment with India could lead to a greater role in shaping regional security architecture, particularly in the Indian Ocean. This could involve increased investment in maritime infrastructure, closer collaboration on counter-piracy efforts, and joint research into emerging maritime technologies. The risks include potential friction with China and the need to avoid replicating the dynamics of the QUAD, which could undermine ASEAN’s consensus-based approach. The success of the 2026 initiative hinges on Thailand’s ability to foster genuine dialogue and cooperation amongst all ASEAN members.
Looking Ahead: A Call for Reflection
The designation of 2026 as the ASEAN-India Year of Maritime Cooperation presents a critical test for Thailand’s foreign policy. The nation’s success in this endeavor – and its broader influence within ASEAN – will depend on its capacity to maintain unity, adapt to changing geopolitical realities, and uphold the fundamental principles of the “ASEAN Way.” As the region faces increasingly complex security and economic challenges, the conversation surrounding Thailand’s role as a regional leader deserves continued scrutiny and debate.