The persistent shelling around Tenke-N’Kongo, a major cobalt mining site in the DRC’s Ituri province, underscores a volatile situation demanding immediate, comprehensive engagement. The French government’s recent endorsement of the FARDC’s actions, coupled with renewed calls for full implementation of the Washington Agreement, highlights a deepening security crisis within the Great Lakes region – a crisis with implications for global supply chains, regional alliances, and the potential for wider instability. The stakes are undeniably high, and a failure to address the underlying drivers of this conflict could have devastating consequences.
## The Cobalt Crucible: Economic Interests and Armed Groups
The current escalation in Ituri is inextricably linked to the global demand for cobalt, a critical component in lithium-ion batteries powering electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Tenke-N’Kongo, operated by Glencore, produces roughly 6% of the world’s cobalt supply, a figure that has dramatically increased over the past decade alongside rising demand. This economic driver has fueled a complex web of armed groups, many of whom operate with impunity, exploiting the region’s mineral wealth. The FDLR, a Rwandan-based militia composed largely of individuals implicated in the 1994 genocide, maintains a significant presence in Ituri, alongside numerous Congolese rebel groups, including the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), which has strong ties to Islamist extremists.
“The economic incentives are the primary engine driving the conflict,” argues Dr. Elisabeth Blanchet, a senior researcher at the International Crisis Group specializing in the Great Lakes. “The presence of multinational corporations operating alongside armed groups, without adequate oversight or accountability, creates a dangerously unstable environment.” Data from the United Nations Group of Experts on DRC mineral flows reveals a staggering volume of cobalt illicitly exported from the region – estimates reaching upwards of $2 billion annually – highlighting the scale of the problem. The ADF, in particular, leverages cobalt smuggling to finance its operations, furthering its capacity and challenging FARDC control.
Recent intelligence reports, compiled by the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), indicate a strengthening of ADF operations, facilitated by increased cobalt revenues. The group is reportedly expanding its territorial control, recruiting new fighters, and coordinating with other armed factions, creating a more formidable and difficult-to-contain force. Furthermore, the exploitation of tantalum, another key mineral found in the region, has added another layer of complexity to the conflict, with various armed groups vying for control of these resources.
## The Washington Agreement and the Limits of International Intervention
The June 27, 2025, Washington Agreement, brokered by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, represents a framework for regional stabilization. It calls for the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of armed groups, coupled with enhanced security sector reform and the promotion of good governance. However, the agreement’s implementation has been severely hampered by a lack of political will among regional actors, persistent insecurity, and the decentralized nature of the conflict. France, a traditional partner of the DRC government, has repeatedly called for full compliance, recognizing the agreement’s potential to create a more secure and predictable environment.
“The key lies in sustained political commitment,” states Professor Antoine Simon, a specialist in African security at Sciences Po Paris. “MONUSCO’s presence alone is not enough. Effective implementation requires a genuine desire from all parties to address the root causes of the conflict, including land disputes, ethnic tensions, and the flow of illicit funds.” The recent French government’s endorsement of the FARDC’s offensive represents a shift in strategy – a more proactive approach to directly confronting armed groups – but this approach requires careful consideration of potential humanitarian consequences and a robust civilian protection strategy.
Over the past six months, MONUSCO’s mandate has been increasingly focused on supporting the FARDC, providing training, equipment, and logistical support. However, this assistance has not translated into a decisive advantage for the Congolese forces, who continue to struggle with logistical challenges, weak leadership, and a lack of accountability. The FDLR, shielded by local support and operating in a complex terrain, has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to evade and ambush FARDC patrols.
## Short-Term and Long-Term Projections
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see continued escalation of violence in Ituri, with the FARDC pursuing an offensive to recapture territory held by the FDLR and other armed groups. The ADF will continue to exploit the situation to expand its operational footprint and consolidate its control over cobalt mining areas. A potential humanitarian crisis, driven by displacement and food insecurity, is a significant concern.
In the long term (5-10 years), the situation could deteriorate further if the underlying drivers of the conflict are not addressed. The demand for cobalt is expected to remain high, creating a continued incentive for armed groups to exploit the region’s resources. The consolidation of ADF power, potentially linked to other extremist networks, poses a long-term threat to regional stability. Moreover, the protracted conflict will exacerbate existing ethnic tensions, potentially leading to prolonged cycles of violence and displacement. The potential for broader regional instability – involving neighboring countries like Rwanda and Uganda – remains a critical concern. A failure to prioritize sustainable development, good governance, and accountability will ultimately perpetuate the “cobalt cage,” trapping the DRC in a cycle of conflict and exploitation.
The complexity of the situation demands a comprehensive and sustained approach, involving not just military intervention, but also diplomatic engagement, economic development, and robust efforts to combat illicit finance. The question remains: will the international community demonstrate the sustained commitment needed to effectively address this critical challenge, or will the Great Lakes region continue to be a crucible of instability?