Somalia’s security transition, a fragile undertaking reliant on sustained international support, faced a critical juncture as a High-Level Financing Event convened for the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) on September 25, 2025. The gathering, involving the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations (UN), and the United Kingdom (UK), underscored a significant challenge: the persistent need for predictable and substantial financial backing to secure Somalia’s increasingly precarious security trajectory. The event highlighted the inherent risks associated with delayed or insufficient funding, potentially reversing recent gains against Al-Shabaab and jeopardizing the broader stabilization effort.
The context for this crucial meeting is deeply rooted in Somalia’s protracted conflict, dating back decades, and the subsequent interventions of international actors. The 2012 African Union Intervention Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), later superseded by AUSSOM, represented a pivotal shift in the approach to the crisis. The December 2023 Security Conference, which endorsed the Somali Security Development Plan (SSDP), established a framework predicated on Somali ownership, yet highlighted the dependency on external resources. The SSDP, emphasizing security sector reform, capacity building, and governance improvements, remains the guiding principle, but its success hinges on consistent financial commitment.
Recent advances under the leadership of President Dr. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have demonstrably strengthened Somalia’s position. Data released by the FGS indicated a 15% reduction in Al-Shabaab’s territorial control within the last six months, coupled with the successful recovery of strategic infrastructure vital for trade and communication. Simultaneously, significant steps were taken to improve public financial management, implementing new payroll systems to enhance transparency and accountability—a key factor in combating corruption and bolstering governance. Quick-impact projects and localized reconciliation initiatives are also driving positive change in newly reclaimed areas, signifying a return to normalcy and facilitating local governance. Furthermore, Somalia’s increased regional cooperation—including enhanced ties with neighbours and participation in regional organisations—positions it as a more constructive partner in the broader pursuit of stability.
However, the risks remain acute. As Dr. Ahmed Abdi, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Security Studies, stated, “The fragility of Somalia’s security transition is inextricably linked to the continuity of financial support. Any interruption to AUSSOM’s operations carries the potential for a resurgence of Al-Shabaab and a reversal of all the progress achieved thus far.” The current financing gap, estimated to be upwards of USD 80 million, presents a serious impediment. Without adequate resources, maintaining momentum against the terrorist group, securing vulnerable supply routes, and bolstering governance structures are all at risk.
The September 25th event saw concrete pledges, albeit still falling short of the total need. The African Union announced a USD 20 million commitment for 2025 operations, coupled with personnel and logistical support. The United Kingdom pledged GBP 16.5 million, reinforcing its long-standing partnership. Additional pledges came from Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Spain, with the European Union expected to announce specific military support shortly. These contributions, while valuable, emphasize the fundamental challenge: a sustained, multi-year funding model is essential.
Looking ahead, within the next six months, the focus will likely remain on maintaining current operational levels of AUSSOM, navigating potential disruptions caused by seasonal factors and continued Al-Shabaab activity. Long-term (5-10 years), a shift is anticipated – moving beyond emergency support to strategic investments in Somali security institutions. This would necessitate establishing a robust Somali defence industry, strengthening Somali security forces through comprehensive training and equipment upgrades, and fostering sustainable economic development to reduce the root causes of instability. This demands not simply short-term financing, but a commitment to developing Somali capacity and ownership. Furthermore, ensuring accountability and transparency in the use of funds will be a critical element of securing continued donor confidence.
The challenges are vast, but the potential consequences of failure are devastating—a return to widespread instability, humanitarian crises, and regional security threats. The co-chairs’ repeated calls for a broadened donor base and multi-year financing underscore the need for a fundamental reassessment of the approach to Somalia’s security transition. Ultimately, the success of AUSSOM, and indeed the future of Somalia, rests on a commitment to fostering genuine Somali ownership, bolstered by sustained and strategically aligned international support. The question remains: can the international community translate pledges into tangible, long-term investment, or will Somalia’s precarious security future remain perpetually suspended?