Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been largely defined by a close alignment with the United States, a relationship solidified through security cooperation, particularly during the Cold War and subsequently reinforced through military training and intelligence sharing. However, this alignment has demonstrably weakened in recent decades, influenced by a combination of factors: shifting global power dynamics, a perceived decline in US commitment to Southeast Asia, and Thailand’s increasing engagement with China and Russia. The current administration, while maintaining a bilateral defense relationship with the US, is demonstrably prioritizing the cultivation of relationships with the EU – specifically Germany and Latvia – as a buffer against perceived Chinese influence and as a pathway to accessing key technologies and investment opportunities.
Key stakeholders include, beyond the Thai and Latvian governments, Germany’s influential economic and military establishments, and the European Commission. Germany, heavily invested in Southeast Asia’s burgeoning digital economy and possessing considerable expertise in defense technology, stands to benefit significantly from closer collaboration with Thailand. Latvia, as a key member of the EU and a strategically positioned state within the Baltic region, serves as a conduit for facilitating this relationship. The EU’s support for Thailand’s potential accession to the OECD is a vital element, representing a critical step towards aligning Thai economic policies with international standards. Furthermore, the discussion regarding visa waiver arrangements for Thai ordinary passport holders entering the Schengen area highlights a deliberate effort to enhance Thailand’s connectivity and integration within the global economic order.
Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that Thailand’s trade with the EU has risen by 18% over the past five years, demonstrating a tangible economic benefit to this engagement. “The EU’s support is not simply about economic gains; it’s about ensuring Thailand’s strategic autonomy,” noted Dr. Anya Sharma, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Berlin, during a recent public forum. “Thailand is acutely aware of the risks associated with over-reliance on any single regional power.”
The situation in Myanmar remains a critical complicating factor. Thailand, bound by treaty obligations and shared border concerns, continues to grapple with the humanitarian crisis and instability stemming from the military coup. The discussions in Riga, while ostensibly focused on economic cooperation, inevitably touched upon the need for coordinated regional efforts to address the situation. The escalating tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border, exacerbated by disputes over the Preah Vihear Temple, further underscore the challenges of managing regional security concerns. According to a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the frequency of border skirmishes has increased by 37% in the last six months, demonstrating a worrying trend.
Looking ahead, short-term outcomes (next 6 months) will likely see the solidification of existing trade agreements and the pursuit of joint projects in sectors such as digital infrastructure and renewable energy. The EU is expected to continue providing technical assistance to Thailand’s accession to the OECD, whilst Thailand will continue to navigate its relationship with Myanmar through diplomatic channels. Long-term (5-10 years), Thailand’s success will hinge on its ability to leverage its strategic position within ASEAN to foster stability and promote economic integration. However, this ambition is challenged by the increasing competition for influence in the Indo-Pacific region, primarily between the US, China, and India. “Thailand’s trajectory is a microcosm of the broader strategic realignment occurring across Southeast Asia,” stated Professor David Chen, a specialist in Indo-Pacific security at the National Defense University, “The country’s success will depend on its ability to maintain a delicate balance, leveraging its ties with the EU and ASEAN while skillfully managing its relationship with China.” Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to test Thailand’s neutrality, with the government facing pressure to condemn Russian actions while simultaneously seeking to maintain trade relations. The next six months will provide crucial insight into whether Thailand can successfully navigate these competing pressures and cement its role as a key player in the evolving regional order.