“The situation in the Sahel is deteriorating, creating a vacuum for external actors to exploit,” stated Dr. Fatima Diallo, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, during a recent briefing. “The complex interplay of weak governance, climate change, and extremist violence presents a challenge to regional and international security.” The displacement of over 4.8 million people due to conflict and insecurity across the region – primarily in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – underscores the severity of the crisis and the imperative for a nuanced understanding of the strategic actors involved. China’s growing presence in the Sahel, particularly its economic engagement and security assistance, is arguably the most significant and potentially destabilizing factor in this complex environment, demanding immediate attention from policymakers and security analysts.
Historical Context: A Long-Term Strategic Calculation
China’s engagement in Africa, and specifically the Sahel, dates back to the late 1960s, largely driven by the Non-Aligned Movement and a desire to diversify its diplomatic and economic relationships. Initially focused on trade and infrastructure projects, China’s approach has evolved significantly over the past two decades, mirroring a more assertive foreign policy. The rise of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—saw a greater emphasis on South-South cooperation, and China began to strategically position itself as a partner for countries seeking alternatives to traditional Western development models. The Sahel, with its rich mineral resources (particularly uranium, gold, and bauxite) and strategic location along key trade routes, became a critical element in this broader strategy. A key treaty, the 2017 Framework Agreement between the governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger and the China–Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum, formalized this growing partnership, laying the groundwork for significant investments in infrastructure and security.
Economic Engagement: Beyond Infrastructure
China’s economic activities in the Sahel are primarily driven by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), although the scope of BRI projects has been scaled back in recent years due to security concerns and geopolitical considerations. However, Chinese companies continue to invest heavily in infrastructure, including roads, railways, and ports. A 2023 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) highlighted that Chinese investment in the Sahel totaled $11.3 billion between 2018 and 2022, surpassing investment from traditional Western partners in many sectors. Furthermore, Chinese companies are heavily involved in the extraction of natural resources, often operating with fewer regulatory constraints than Western firms, leading to concerns about environmental sustainability and labor practices. The data shows a significant increase in the volume of raw materials exported from the region to China, particularly phosphate, cotton, and grains, creating a dependence that is increasingly leveraged for political influence.
Security Assistance: A Contested Landscape
China’s security engagement in the Sahel has been more deliberately understated, focusing largely on training and equipment provision to local security forces. This assistance, largely delivered through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and increasingly through partnerships with Russian security firms, has been presented as a contribution to combating terrorism and promoting stability. However, the nature of this assistance has raised concerns among Western nations and regional allies who view it as a means to expand China’s strategic footprint and potentially undermine existing security partnerships, particularly those led by France and the United Kingdom. Data from the Control Group on Conflict, Security and Humanitarian Challenges, suggests that Chinese military personnel have been increasingly involved in advising and training local forces, operating alongside, and in some cases directly supporting, groups operating in conflict zones. The scale of Chinese involvement in counter-terrorism operations remains unclear, but its influence on security strategy is undeniable.
Recent Developments & Shifting Dynamics
Over the past six months, the situation has undergone a dramatic shift. The 2023 military coup in Niger, followed by the suspension of Chinese security assistance, exposed the vulnerabilities inherent in China’s approach. Simultaneously, Russia’s growing influence, particularly through the Wagner Group, has further complicated the security landscape, creating a multi-polar environment. The emergence of a new security alliance between Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, heavily reliant on Russian support, has presented a significant challenge to Western diplomatic efforts. Moreover, the ongoing humanitarian crisis—compounded by extreme weather events—is exacerbating instability and creating new opportunities for extremist groups to gain traction. The impact of the collapse of the Gao airbase in Mali in 2023 further underscores the fragility of China’s security operations in the region.
Future Implications & Strategic Considerations
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see a consolidation of Russia’s influence in the Sahel, potentially leading to a regional power shift. China, facing increased scrutiny and seeking to mitigate reputational damage, is expected to scale back some of its most ambitious infrastructure projects. However, its continued economic engagement and security assistance are almost guaranteed, driven by long-term strategic interests. Over the next five to ten years, the Sahel is likely to remain a region of intense instability, with China and Russia vying for influence, creating significant geopolitical risks. A key strategic imperative for Western nations is to proactively engage with regional actors—including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—to address the underlying causes of instability, promote good governance, and build resilient societies. Failing to do so risks allowing China and Russia to solidify their position, effectively shaping the future of the Sahel and, potentially, the broader African continent.