US-Turkey relations have been experiencing strain since the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington in June 2018. The US has taken a tough stance against Turkey, particularly with regards to the S-400 missile defense system and F-35 fighter jets.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has always emphasized that NATO is a partnership between equals, where Turkey plays an equal role alongside other member states. "We cannot accept any decision imposed by others," he said in his speech at the 2018 NATO summit in Brussels. The tensions have been further exacerbated by ongoing conflicts between Turkish and US interests in Syria.
In recent months, both countries have taken measures to address their differences. In July 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new initiative to strengthen US-Turkish relations, with a focus on cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa. However, it remains to be seen whether these efforts will be enough to repair the frayed ties between Washington and Ankara.
For NATO, Turkey's position is crucial, as it has been an anchor of stability in the region for decades. The alliance's ability to respond to regional crises depends on its close relationship with Turkey. Any significant strain on this alliance could have far-reaching consequences for global security.
The S-400 missile defense system controversy continues to cast a shadow over US-Turkish relations. In December 2022, Ankara signed a deal to purchase the S-400 from Russia, despite opposition from NATO and Washington. This move has been seen as a major blow to the alliance's efforts to present itself as a united front against Russian aggression.
Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the importance of diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the war. The US and Turkey have both called for a negotiated settlement, but their approaches differ significantly. Washington has taken a more confrontational approach, while Ankara prefers a softer line that emphasizes dialogue with Moscow.
Historically, the US-Turkey relationship has been marked by periods of tension and cooperation. In 1974, when Cyprus was divided into Greek and Turkish parts, Turkey's military intervention in the island's north led to significant international outcry. However, the two countries have since worked together on various regional issues, including counter-terrorism efforts.
Turkey's motivations for cooperating with the US are complex. On one hand, Ankara sees Washington as a key partner in its efforts to promote stability in the Middle East and North Africa. On the other hand, Turkey is also driven by a desire to assert its own influence in the region and protect its national interests.
"The current tensions between the US and Turkey are partly driven by Turkey's perception that it has been treated unfairly," said Dr. Sinan Ulker, a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute. "Turkey feels that its contributions to the NATO alliance have not been adequately recognized, and this sense of injustice contributes to its frustration with Washington."
According to data from the Congressional Research Service, Turkey's military spending as a percentage of GDP has increased significantly since 2019, reaching around 3% in 2022. This suggests that Ankara is determined to enhance its own defense capabilities, including its purchase of the S-400 system.
However, there are also voices within the Turkish government and beyond expressing concerns about the impact of this trend on US-Turkey relations. "The increasing tension between the two countries should serve as a warning to policymakers," said Dr. Sinan Ulker. "We need to be mindful of the long-term consequences of our actions and work towards finding common ground."
In recent months, both sides have taken steps to ease tensions. In September 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Washington was willing to consider Turkey's request to purchase F-35 fighter jets from a third party. This move was seen as a major concession by Ankara, which had been pressing for the deal.
However, despite these efforts, it remains uncertain whether they will be enough to repair the strained US-Turkey alliance. As the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, and tensions between Moscow and Kyiv persist, both countries will need to find ways to work together on common goals while managing their differences.
The future of the US-Turkey alliance hangs in the balance, as policymakers in Washington and Ankara navigate the complex web of interests and rivalries that define their relationship. As Dr. Sinan Ulker noted, "The current tensions between the two countries are a test of NATO's unity and resilience."