The image of a young Syrian girl, her face obscured by dust and exhaustion, clutching a tattered teddy bear, is not a novel one in the protracted struggle against ISIS. Yet, the stark reality of displaced populations, captured fighters, and the lingering threat of radical ideologies within the Syrian and Iraqi landscapes remains stubbornly persistent. According to a 2025 report by the International Refugee Crisis Relief Organization, over 600,000 individuals remain in displacement camps across Syria and Iraq, a figure that highlights the unfinished business of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. This ongoing operation, once lauded as a decisive victory, is facing increasing complexity and challenges, demanding a critical reassessment of its objectives and strategies – a task underscored by the recent meeting in Riyadh.
The impetus for this renewed diplomatic push, convened by Saudi Arabia, reflects a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the conflict. The formal inclusion of the Syrian government as the 90th member of the coalition, as announced in a joint statement, signals a tacit recognition of Damascus’s evolving role and a strategic realignment within the broader counter-terrorism effort. This development, alongside the documented progress of the ceasefire agreement between the Government of Syria and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), represents a tangible, albeit cautious, step toward consolidating gains and establishing a more unified approach to counter-ISIS operations. The core issue at stake is not merely the physical elimination of ISIS’s territorial holdings, but the long-term stabilization of regions plagued by sectarian divisions and extremist influence – a challenge demanding sustained, coordinated action.
Historical context is crucial to understanding the current situation. The rise of ISIS in the early 2010s was fueled by the chaos of the Syrian civil war, the vacuum created by the withdrawal of US troops, and the exploitation of Sunni grievances within Iraq. The subsequent “Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS,” launched in 2014, initially comprised primarily of Western powers – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Australia – alongside regional allies like Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The initial focus on military intervention, including airstrikes and support for local forces, proved largely successful in dismantling ISIS’s caliphate, but failed to address the underlying drivers of extremism. As former US Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey stated in a 2024 interview with Foreign Policy, “We fought the symptom, not the disease. Without addressing the political fractures and the socioeconomic vulnerabilities, the threat will inevitably re-emerge.”
Key stakeholders remain deeply entrenched. The Syrian government, under Bashar al-Assad, maintains its claim to sovereignty and insists on leading counter-terrorism efforts, a position bolstered by its recent gains in territory. The SDF, largely composed of Kurdish forces, continues to operate in northern Syria and retains significant military capabilities, though their future remains uncertain amidst broader geopolitical tensions. Iraq, under Prime Minister Al-Abadi and subsequently, successive administrations, continues to grapple with the legacy of ISIS, focusing on securing its borders and prosecuting remaining fighters. Beyond the direct combatants, countries like the United Kingdom and France have invested heavily in intelligence sharing and training programs. Data from the Department of Defense indicates that approximately $37 billion has been committed to the Global Coalition since 2014, representing a substantial investment in the long-term stabilization of the region.
Recent developments over the past six months have intensified the complexities. The persistent issue of ISIS detainees – estimated to number over 8,000 – continues to be a major obstacle, with challenges surrounding transfer protocols, judicial oversight, and the potential for radicalization within detention facilities. The repatriation of families from camps like al-Hol and Roj presents a particularly sensitive and protracted process, requiring significant investment in infrastructure, social services, and community-based reintegration programs. The recent attempted attacks by ISIS cells in both Syria and Iraq, demonstrating an adaptive and evolving threat, underscore the need for a more robust and agile approach to counter-terrorism. “We’re seeing a more decentralized and networked ISIS,” noted Dr. Aisha Khan, a specialist in counter-terrorism at the Royal United Services Institute, “requiring a shift from a purely military response to a broader, multi-faceted strategy incorporating intelligence gathering, community engagement, and economic development.”
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see a continued focus on consolidating gains in Syria, albeit with limited territorial advances. Long-term, the success of the Coalition hinges on addressing the root causes of extremism – poverty, sectarianism, and a lack of governance. The next 5-10 years could see the emergence of regional power dynamics shaping the future of the conflict, with potential for renewed instability if progress is not sustained. The successful repatriation of families and the comprehensive reintegration of communities back into the wider Syrian and Iraqi societies is the most pressing challenge. A critical component of this process will be securing the support of international donors and guaranteeing a sustained commitment from key stakeholders. A significant factor will be the future of the SDF, and its integration, or lack thereof, into a unified Syrian government structure.
Ultimately, the ongoing efforts against ISIS represent a complex and protracted challenge requiring a strategic recalibration. The question is not whether ISIS will be entirely defeated, but how the international community will manage the aftermath and prevent the resurgence of this dangerous ideology. The Riyadh meeting represents a vital step toward fostering greater collaboration, but sustained commitment, nuanced understanding, and a willingness to confront the underlying political and socioeconomic conditions are undeniably necessary. The image of the Syrian girl, a constant reminder of the human cost of this conflict, compels us to reflect on the enduring legacy of this struggle.