The escalating tensions between China and the United States, coupled with a broader global push for regional blocs like the Comprehensive Economic Partnership – Trans-Pacific (CPTPP) – are creating a complex environment. Thailand, historically reliant on Western economic engagement and a strong relationship with ASEAN, finds itself navigating a turbulent sea. The recent signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by many Southeast Asian nations, excluding Thailand, represents a powerful challenge to the established ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) model. This exclusion, combined with increasing Chinese investment and trade within the region, is forcing Thailand to recalibrate its foreign policy, and it is doing so with deliberate, yet potentially fraught, strategies.
Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been rooted in a balance of engagement with both the West and China. The 2001 “5S” Foreign Affairs Masterplan, aimed at ‘Security,’ ‘Stability,’ ‘Satisfaction,’ ‘Sustainability,’ and ‘Sacrifice,’ sought to leverage Thailand’s strategic location and economic influence to secure regional stability. However, the current iteration, while retaining the overarching goals, reflects a more assertive approach, particularly regarding economic security. “We are seeking an independent path,” stated Ambassador Sihasak Phuangketkeow, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, during a recent ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat briefing, “This doesn’t mean we’re choosing sides, but it does mean we’re prioritizing Thailand’s national interests.” This sentiment is echoed by Dr. Chulasatien Virachart, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Diplomacy, who notes, “Thailand’s reluctance to fully embrace RCEP highlights a cautious assessment of the potential risks associated with deeper integration into a US-led bloc.”
The core of Thailand’s strategic repositioning revolves around strengthening its relationships with China, while simultaneously attempting to retain a degree of influence within ASEAN. Investment flows from Chinese companies into strategically important sectors – infrastructure, energy, and tourism – are increasing exponentially. Figures from the Thai Board of Investment (BOI) indicate a 40% surge in Chinese investment during 2024 alone, largely focused on projects along the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). Simultaneously, Thailand is actively pursuing bilateral trade agreements with China, aiming to mitigate the economic fallout from RCEP’s exclusion. “Thailand sees China as a critical trading partner and a potential source of investment,” explained Professor Anusit Nguanpimai, a specialist in Southeast Asian geopolitics at Chulalongkorn University, “The government is acutely aware of the potential loss of economic leverage if Thailand remains solely reliant on Western-dominated trade agreements.”
Recent developments underscore the fluidity of the situation. In November 2025, Thailand brokered a limited trade agreement with Vietnam, circumventing RCEP tariffs on several key agricultural products. Furthermore, Bangkok has been quietly engaging with India, seeking to expand its economic footprint in Southeast Asia, a move reflecting a broader strategic diversification. However, this assertive approach is not without complications. The Philippines’ continued focus on the Myanmar situation through the ASEAN Framework, and the associated strain on regional unity, further complicates Thailand’s efforts to project a unified front. The ongoing concerns within ASEAN regarding non-compliance with the 5PC highlight a fundamental fracture in the bloc’s traditional approach to conflict resolution, presenting a challenge to Thailand’s role as a mediator.
Looking ahead, short-term (next 6 months), Thailand is likely to continue its delicate balancing act, prioritizing bilateral economic engagements and attempting to exert influence within ASEAN through targeted initiatives. Long-term (5-10 years), the risks of further economic fragmentation remain significant. Should China consolidate its dominance within the Mekong region, Thailand’s economic influence could be curtailed, potentially leading to increased reliance on China for trade and investment. The failure to effectively address the broader geopolitical currents—specifically, the ongoing US-China rivalry—will only exacerbate this risk.
Ultimately, Thailand’s success in navigating this complex landscape hinges on its ability to foster genuine regional cooperation, promote inclusivity within ASEAN, and leverage its strategic position to foster mutual benefit. The future of the Mekong, and indeed Thailand’s economic security, depends on a skillful and adaptable approach, one that recognizes the shifting sands of regional power and prioritizes a sustainable, collaborative future—a powerful, albeit challenging, goal.