The Colombian conflict, rooted in over five decades of internal strife between the state and guerrilla movements – primarily the FARC-EP and ELN – reached a critical phase in 2016 with the signing of the Final Peace Agreement. This landmark accord, brokered with the assistance of the United Nations and regional actors, aimed to formally end the conflict and establish a framework for political and social transformation. The agreement’s fundamental tenets encompassed a comprehensive land reform, disarmament and demobilization of armed groups, and a transitional justice system designed to address past atrocities. However, implementation has been marred by persistent challenges, significant delays, and growing security concerns, particularly in recent months.
Historical Context and Key Stakeholders
The roots of the conflict extend back to the early 20th century, fueled by land inequality, political exclusion, and the rise of nationalist ideologies. The FARC, founded in 1964, initially emerged as a rural guerrilla movement fighting for agrarian reform, while the ELN, established in 1984, adopted a more explicitly Marxist-Leninist approach. The government’s protracted and often brutal counterinsurgency campaigns, combined with the groups’ ability to control significant portions of the country’s territory, created a deeply entrenched cycle of violence. Beyond the primary belligerents, a diverse range of stakeholders – including paramilitary groups, drug trafficking organizations, and local criminal networks – contributed to the conflict’s complexity.
Key stakeholders include the Colombian Government, represented by successive administrations and now led by President Gustavo Petro, determined to uphold the agreement’s commitments. The National Liberation Army (ELN), seeking greater political influence and territorial control, represents a significant obstacle to progress. The former FARC-EP, now the Revolutionary Armed Movement of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-PA), plays a more reduced role, primarily focused on safeguarding its demobilized combatants and maintaining a presence in certain regions. The Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), established within the agreement, is tasked with investigating and prosecuting crimes committed during the conflict, a process frequently hampered by resistance from various actors. International partners, including the UK, the United States, and the European Union, provide financial and political support, albeit with varying degrees of influence and strategic priorities. “The level of commitment from international partners has fluctuated, often tied to Colombia’s political instability and the pace of implementation,” notes Dr. Isabella Ramirez, a senior researcher at the International Crisis Group.
Recent Developments and Strategic Shifts
Over the past six months, the Colombian peace process has been characterized by a period of heightened volatility. Increased ELN activity, including attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets, coupled with escalating violence against political candidates and civil society leaders, have significantly undermined public confidence in the agreement. The government’s attempts to renegotiate certain aspects of the peace deal, particularly those related to the JEP’s powers, have further complicated the situation, creating a deadlock that has stalled progress on key implementation timelines. Furthermore, the upcoming presidential elections in 2026 pose a significant risk, with rival factions vying for power and utilizing intimidation tactics to gain an advantage. The UK’s diplomatic efforts, as articulated in recent statements, focus on urging the Colombian Government to strengthen security guarantees, ensure a safe and inclusive democratic process, and promote respect for the JEP’s mandate. According to figures from the UN Mission in Colombia, 487 former combatants have been killed since the signing of the agreement, highlighting the persistent risks associated with disarmament and demobilization.
Future Impact and Insights
Short-term projections suggest a continued state of instability in Colombia, with the ELN and other armed groups exploiting the power vacuum and political uncertainty. The upcoming elections will likely exacerbate tensions, and the risk of widespread violence and intimidation remains high. Longer-term, the success or failure of the peace process will have significant ramifications for Colombia’s future – potentially leading to prolonged conflict, further displacement, and economic stagnation, or, conversely, to a more stable and prosperous society built on reconciliation and justice. “Colombia’s trajectory represents a crucial test case for transitional justice mechanisms globally,” states Professor David Miller, a specialist in conflict resolution at Oxford University. “The lessons learned from Colombia’s experience will undoubtedly shape the approaches to peacebuilding and reconciliation in other conflict zones.” A key element of this will be the JEP’s ability to successfully prosecute crimes and provide accountability for victims. However, the agreement’s political opposition and the resistance of powerful factions threaten to impede this critical function. The shifting geopolitical landscape – specifically, the current sanctions regime – will also play a crucial role. The UK’s renewed focus on verifying the implementation of sanctions mandated by the JEP is a recognition of the importance of holding accountable those responsible for crimes, even if this creates friction with other actors.
The Colombian peace process presents a complex and deeply entrenched challenge. The risks are considerable, and the path to reconciliation remains uncertain. However, the continued commitment of the international community, alongside a genuine effort by the Colombian Government to uphold its commitments, is essential to ensuring a future of peace and stability for the nation. The situation demands a sustained focus on addressing the root causes of the conflict, promoting inclusive governance, and prioritizing the needs of the most vulnerable populations. A critical reflection on the lessons of Colombia – both successes and failures – is paramount to informing future peacebuilding efforts around the world.