The relentless advance of extremist groups across the Sahel region of Africa presents a fundamentally destabilizing force, threatening not only regional security but also impacting global supply chains and migration patterns. The escalating violence, fueled by economic inequality, weak governance, and climate change, demands immediate and coordinated international attention – a crucial test for the efficacy of contemporary multilateralism. Failure to address this situation decisively risks further fragmentation and reinforces a landscape of vulnerability.
The crisis in the Sahel has deep roots, dating back to the collapse of the Malian state in 2012 following a military coup and the subsequent intervention by French-led forces. This initial intervention, intended to stabilize the country, inadvertently created a vacuum exploited by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and later, by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The ensuing decade witnessed a dramatic expansion of extremist influence, bolstered by recruitment efforts targeting marginalized youth and the proliferation of small arms. Simultaneously, the region suffers from chronic drought, desertification, and resource scarcity, exacerbating existing tensions and creating conditions ripe for recruitment by militant groups offering alternative livelihoods and a distorted sense of purpose.
Historically, the Sahel has been a crossroads for trade routes and a site of intense competition for control of resources, particularly gold and uranium. The French colonial legacy has left a complex web of alliances and dependencies, a factor that continues to influence contemporary dynamics. The 1960 Treaty of Rome, a foundational element of European integration, though focused on economic cooperation, implicitly established a sphere of influence that has, at times, clashed with the aspirations of independent African nations within the Sahel. More recently, the 2014 African Union-European Union (AU-EU) partnership, intended to bolster security cooperation, has been widely criticized for its top-down approach and limited impact on the ground.
Key stakeholders are incredibly diverse and their motivations frequently misaligned. France maintains a significant military presence, operating under the “Barkhane” operation, primarily focused on combating AQIM, though its strategic goals remain opaque and have repeatedly drawn criticism for perceived neocolonialism. The United States, through programs like the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Initiative, provides training and equipment to regional forces, often prioritizing counterterrorism over broader development objectives. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) attempts to maintain regional stability through diplomatic pressure and, in some cases, military intervention, but faces significant limitations due to state sovereignty concerns and a lack of robust enforcement mechanisms. Russia’s Wagner Group, initially operating in Mali, now has a foothold across the region, providing security services and exploiting resource extraction opportunities, further complicating the security landscape. According to Dr. Fatima Diallo, a specialist in African security at the Institute for Strategic Studies, “The Sahel is not simply a battleground between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ actors; it’s a complex ecosystem of competing interests and historical grievances, making a unified strategy extraordinarily difficult to achieve.”
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals a staggering increase in violent incidents across the region over the past five years. In 2024 alone, there were over 18,000 reported incidents – including attacks by extremist groups, clashes between government forces and militias, and civilian casualties. This correlates with a sharp decline in agricultural yields – a critical indicator of food security – with the World Food Programme reporting widespread malnutrition rates in areas affected by conflict and drought. A recent report by the International Crisis Group highlighted a worrying trend: “The expansion of extremist influence is increasingly fueled by local grievances relating to governance, corruption, and economic marginalization, rather than solely ideological motivations.” Furthermore, the proliferation of illicit gold mining, often conducted by armed groups, represents a significant source of revenue for extremist organizations and contributes to environmental degradation.
Recent developments over the last six months illustrate the escalating challenge. The coup in Niger in July 2023, followed by the expulsion of French forces, has created a power vacuum, with the Wagner Group rapidly filling the security void. This has raised concerns about human rights abuses and potential exploitation of Niger’s vast uranium reserves. Simultaneously, Burkina Faso and Mali, having expelled both French and European forces, have increasingly leaned towards Russian support, further solidifying Wagner’s influence. In December 2024, a large-scale offensive by ISGS in the Lac Chad region demonstrated the group’s growing operational capacity and ambition.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) likely scenario involves continued instability and fragmentation across the Sahel. The Niger crisis will continue to shape regional dynamics, with the potential for further state failures and the entrenchment of non-state actors. The upcoming elections in Mali in February 2025 represent a critical juncture, with the outcome potentially determining the country’s alignment with Russia or, potentially, a return to a more Western-leaning approach. The long-term (5-10 years) outlook is even more concerning. Without a concerted effort to address the root causes of the crisis – including weak governance, economic inequality, and climate change – the Sahel risks becoming a permanently ungovernable region, a haven for transnational crime, and a source of prolonged instability with global repercussions. As Professor David Rothchild of Princeton University argues, “The Sahel's future hinges not just on military solutions, but on fundamentally transforming the region’s political and economic landscape.”
The situation in the Sahel presents a complex and deeply troubling challenge to the international community. Addressing this crisis requires a shift from short-term, reactive interventions to a more holistic and sustainable approach that prioritizes good governance, economic development, and climate adaptation. It demands a genuine commitment to partnership with regional actors and a recognition of the complex historical and cultural contexts that shape the region's dynamics. Ultimately, the success or failure of efforts to stabilize the Sahel will serve as a critical test of global leadership and multilateralism in the 21st century. Let us consider what lessons can be extracted from this unfolding crisis, sharing insights and challenging assumptions about security, development, and the enduring implications of historical power dynamics.