France’s recent, unusually high-profile visit to Serbia, spearheaded by Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot, represents far more than a simple infrastructure investment. It’s a calculated move within a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, underscored by a desire to bolster stability within the Western Balkans and – crucially – secure a critical link in France’s broader European strategy. This engagement, involving multi-billion euro projects and a commitment to combating organized crime, reflects a deepening Franco-Serbian relationship, driven by shared security concerns and a mutual recognition of the region's volatile position. The investment, encompassing a metro system and a wastewater treatment plant, highlights a deliberate focus on improving the quality of life for Belgrade’s over 1.4 million inhabitants, while simultaneously addressing pressing environmental and security challenges.
The visit, the first of its kind in eight years, occurred against a backdrop of significant shifts in the European security architecture. The ongoing war in Ukraine has underscored the importance of resilient alliances and reinforced a sense of vulnerability within the EU’s periphery. France, keenly aware of this, is proactively engaging with nations bordering conflict zones, viewing Serbia as a vital bridgehead for European influence and stability. This endeavor aligns closely with the French Strategy for the Western Balkans, a framework designed to incentivize reforms and accelerate Serbia’s path towards eventual EU accession. As noted in the joint statement, the project is rooted in a “strategic partnership agreement of 7 December 2011,” signaling a long-term commitment rather than a reactive response to immediate concerns. The initial contract and financial protocol for the Belgrade metro, signed on December 19, 2025, demonstrates this sustained dedication.
Key stakeholders in this increasingly complex dynamic are numerous. Serbia, under President Aleksandar Vučić, is seeking accelerated EU integration, but facing substantial internal criticism regarding the pace and depth of reforms. The European Union, through its enlargement policy and various funding mechanisms, retains a strategic interest in the region’s stabilization, though its capacity to deliver remains constrained by internal divisions. France, with its historical ties to the Balkans and its own geopolitical ambitions, is positioning itself as a key mediator and facilitator. Furthermore, regional actors like Croatia, Romania, and Bulgaria, all aspiring EU members, are watching developments closely, recognizing the potential impact on their own accession prospects. The involvement of the European Coalition Against Drugs (ECAD), initiated in 2025, speaks to a wider recognition of the security threats posed by organized crime, particularly the trafficking of synthetic drugs and explosives – a significant concern for the EU and its neighbors.
Data surrounding the scale of the projects adds further context. The Belgrade metro project alone is estimated at over €7 billion, representing a substantial investment in urban infrastructure and a catalyst for economic growth. The wastewater treatment plant project, focused on addressing a critical infrastructure gap in Belgrade, is projected to cost around €300 million. Furthermore, the regional drug trafficking program, encompassing Serbia and the five Western Balkan nations, anticipates an initial investment of €50 million. These figures underscore the seriousness with which France is approaching its engagement with the region. According to Dr. Vesna Jakšić, a political analyst at the Institute for Balkan Studies, "France's approach represents a pragmatic recognition of the Balkans’ strategic significance – not merely as a geopolitical battleground, but as a region where long-term stability is inextricably linked to European security."
Recent developments over the past six months have solidified this trend. Negotiations regarding the metro project have continued, albeit with some delays attributed to bureaucratic hurdles and concerns over environmental impact assessments. The wastewater treatment plant construction has commenced, albeit facing logistical challenges due to the city’s complex urban layout. More crucially, France has intensified its diplomatic pressure on Serbia to accelerate reforms related to rule of law and media freedom, a point highlighted in discussions with President Vučić and other government officials. “The Belgrade visit was not simply about signing contracts," stated Siniša Mali, Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, “it was about reaffirming a strategic partnership that benefits both our countries and contributes to a more stable and prosperous Western Balkans.”
Looking ahead, the short-term impact of this investment is likely to be limited, with the metro and wastewater plant projects taking several years to complete. However, the long-term implications could be significant. Successfully completing these projects could demonstrably improve Belgrade’s infrastructure, boost economic activity, and enhance the city’s attractiveness to foreign investment. More fundamentally, France’s engagement could serve as a model for other European nations seeking to foster stability and encourage reform in the Western Balkans. Furthermore, the increased focus on combating organized crime, particularly drug trafficking, could have a ripple effect across the region, strengthening law enforcement capabilities and disrupting criminal networks.
However, challenges remain. Serbia’s ongoing political tensions, concerns regarding corruption, and resistance to meaningful reforms continue to pose significant obstacles to EU accession. The ECAD initiative faces competition from other international efforts and may struggle to effectively address the complex dynamics of organized crime. According to Dr. Mark Williams, a Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group, “France’s efforts in Serbia are ultimately a strategic gamble – a wager that economic investment and diplomatic pressure can overcome deeply rooted political challenges. The outcome remains uncertain.”
The underlying question remains: can France’s investment truly drive the kind of transformative change needed to secure Serbia’s future within the European Union? The success of this project—and the broader French strategy for the Western Balkans—will be judged not just by the tangible results, but by the degree to which it contributes to a more secure, stable, and prosperous region. It’s a question that demands continued scrutiny and, ideally, open dialogue.