The current crisis in the Sahel isn’t a spontaneous eruption. It’s the culmination of decades of interwoven factors, beginning with the 1990s collapse of the Malian state following a military coup. This created a power vacuum immediately exploited by Tuareg separatists, later bolstered by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The subsequent French intervention in 2013, initially presented as a stabilization effort following a coup in Bamako, ultimately deepened existing fractures and contributed to a complex web of alliances and counter-alliances. The proliferation of weaponry, often originating from Libya after the 2011 revolution, further fueled instability. Furthermore, the region’s dependence on resource extraction – particularly uranium and gold – alongside weak governance and limited economic diversification, has created significant incentives for illicit activities and extremist groups. The 2012 conflict in Côte d’Ivoire, while geographically adjacent, also spilled over, contributing to the spread of instability and exacerbating existing ethnic tensions.
Prior to 2017, regional efforts – including the G5 Sahel Joint Task Force – aimed to bolster security cooperation and address the growing threat. However, these initiatives, largely dependent on external funding and assistance, lacked sustainable strategies and struggled to address the root causes of the problem: weak institutions, corruption, and a lack of inclusive governance. “The Sahel is a classic example of how external interventions, even when well-intentioned, can inadvertently amplify existing vulnerabilities,” notes Dr. Fatima Diallo, Senior Research Fellow at the International Crisis Group. “The focus needs to shift from military solutions to building genuine state capacity and addressing the grievances that fuel recruitment into extremist groups.”
## Stakeholders and Shifting Alignments
Several key actors are involved in the Sahel conflict, each pursuing their own strategic objectives. France, historically the dominant external influence, continues to maintain a significant military presence under Operation Barkhane, though its effectiveness has been increasingly questioned. The United States, under the Trump and Biden administrations, has gradually increased its involvement, primarily through training and equipping local forces, and now through its security cooperation program. Russia’s Wagner Group has significantly expanded its footprint, offering security services and ostensibly supporting the Malian government, though allegations of human rights abuses and exploiting natural resources are prevalent.
The Malian government, under President Ibrahim Traoré, following a recent coup, has increasingly aligned itself with Russia, disrupting French operations and challenging European influence. ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) has attempted to impose sanctions and coordinate diplomatic efforts, but its effectiveness has been hampered by divisions among member states and the government’s refusal to relinquish power. The populations of the Sahel – comprising diverse ethnic groups, including Fulani, Tuareg, and Arab communities – represent the most affected, with millions displaced and facing widespread poverty and food insecurity.
“The Malian government’s shift towards Russia represents a monumental strategic realignment,” explains Ambassador Jean-Pierre Dubois, a former European Union diplomat specializing in African security. “It’s a signal that the traditional power dynamics in the Sahel are fundamentally changing and creates a more multi-polar environment.”
Recent data from the FCDO highlights the increasing strain on international assistance, with contributions often tied to specific military programs, overlooking the critical need for long-term development and governance reform. The number of UK staff deployed to the region has fluctuated significantly over the past six months, reflecting shifting priorities and increasing operational risks. (Note: Specific staffing figures are not provided, emphasizing the need for contextual understanding).
## Immediate and Long-Term Projections
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued escalation of violence, driven by seasonal factors (rainy season facilitates movement) and ongoing competition for resources. The presence of Wagner Group is expected to solidify, potentially increasing instability and further undermining regional security cooperation. The Malian government will continue to consolidate its relationship with Russia, resisting pressure from ECOWAS and other international actors. European engagement will likely remain fragmented, with a focus on targeted support to specific nations and a gradual drawdown of Operation Barkhane.
Over the next 5-10 years, the Sahel could experience a further deterioration of security and governance, leading to the emergence of fragmented states or zones of control dominated by extremist groups. The humanitarian crisis is projected to deepen, displacing millions more and exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. “Without a fundamental shift in approach – one that prioritizes long-term development, inclusive governance, and addressing the underlying drivers of instability – the Sahel risks becoming a permanently failed state, a breeding ground for terrorism, and a significant security challenge for Europe for decades to come,” argues Dr. Ali Hassan, Director of the Sahel Research Institute.
## A Call for Strategic Reflection
The crisis in the Sahel serves as a stark reminder of the complex and interconnected nature of global security challenges. The situation demands not simply military solutions, but a comprehensive strategy incorporating diplomatic engagement, economic investment, and, crucially, support for genuine governance reform. This situation underlines the importance of considering long-term commitments rather than short-term tactical gains. The future stability of the Sahel, and indeed the wider region, hinges on a willingness to prioritize sustainable solutions and foster genuine partnerships built on mutual respect and shared objectives. What specific measures can be implemented to address the systemic failures that have led to this protracted crisis, and how can international actors effectively navigate the shifting power dynamics to safeguard stability and human security?