Historical Context: The origins of the border conflict date back to the 1960s when Cambodia, under Prince Norodom Sihanouk, claimed sovereignty over the Preah Vihear Temple, located on a ridge bordering Thailand. The issue was formally resolved in 1962 following negotiations between Thailand and Cambodia, with the latter recognizing Thailand’s sovereignty over the area. However, Cambodia reasserted its claims in 2003, leading to renewed tensions and ultimately, a prolonged military standoff. The 2011 occupation of the Prachak area by Cambodian forces further complicated the situation, culminating in an international arbitration ruling in 2013 that affirmed Thailand’s sovereignty over the contested zone. Despite this ruling, border disputes, particularly related to the Preah Vihear Temple itself, continue to simmer.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations: The primary actors involved include Thailand, Cambodia, and, to a lesser extent, China and ASEAN. Thailand’s motivations are rooted in safeguarding its national security, protecting its citizens, and asserting its territorial claims, based on the 2013 arbitration. Cambodia, under Prime Minister Hun Sen, seeks to maintain control over the disputed territory and leverage the issue for domestic political gain, capitalizing on nationalist sentiment. China, a key economic partner for both nations, has traditionally adopted a neutral stance, advocating for peaceful resolution while also emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plays a crucial role as a mediator, although its effectiveness has been hampered by Cambodia’s consistent support for Hanoi’s position, a divergence that has strained the organization’s unity. According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, “the underlying tensions are not solely about territory but also about power, legitimacy, and the long-term strategic priorities of each country.” (International Crisis Group, “Thailand-Cambodia: Preventing a New Conflict,” November 2025).
Recent Developments (Past Six Months): Over the past six months, the situation has seen a marked increase in military activity. In November 2025, Thai forces engaged in a significant offensive operation targeting Cambodian military installations near the border, resulting in casualties on both sides. Simultaneously, Cambodia has been accused of deploying additional troops and conducting unannounced military drills in the area. Notably, the recent incident involving a Thai soldier losing an ankle after stepping on a landmine has dramatically heightened the rhetoric and fueled accusations of deliberate aggression. Cambodia’s decision to actively lay more landmines, in violation of the 1980 Geneva Convention, represents a significant escalation and a worrying indication of a breakdown in trust. Intelligence reports suggest that non-state actors, including armed groups, are increasingly present along the border, further complicating the security landscape.
Data and Statistics: According to the Thai Ministry of Defence, the number of cross-border incidents has increased by 35% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The United Nations has documented over 150 landmine incidents along the border since 2023. Furthermore, economic analysts estimate that the ongoing border tensions have cost the region an estimated $2.8 billion in lost trade and tourism revenue. “The economic consequences of this conflict are substantial and directly impact the livelihoods of communities living along the border,” noted Dr. Anupong Suksawang, a senior economist at the Bangkok Institute for Economic Studies, in a recent interview. (Bangkok Institute for Economic Studies, “Economic Impact of the Thailand-Cambodia Border Dispute,” December 2025).
Future Impact & Insight: Looking ahead, the immediate future (next 6 months) will likely see continued low-level military skirmishes and a fragile ceasefire. The deployment of additional international observers, potentially through ASEAN, may offer a temporary stabilization, but a fundamental resolution remains elusive. Long-term (5-10 years), the risk of a full-scale conflict remains, particularly if Cambodia continues to pursue a hardline stance. A protracted stalemate could create a vacuum for extremist groups to exploit, further destabilizing the region. The involvement of external actors, such as China, is likely to intensify as the dispute attracts regional and international attention. Furthermore, the ongoing issue of landmines poses a serious humanitarian concern, requiring coordinated efforts to de-mine the border region. The long-term implications for ASEAN unity are severe, with the organization facing the challenge of maintaining its credibility as a mediator in this increasingly volatile situation.
Call to Reflection: The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute serves as a potent reminder of the fragility of peace in Southeast Asia and the enduring challenges of managing territorial disputes. This situation necessitates a renewed commitment to multilateral diplomacy, underpinned by a genuine desire to address the root causes of the conflict. Policymakers and security analysts should actively engage in promoting confidence-building measures, fostering dialogue, and ensuring adherence to international law. The ongoing tensions highlight the importance of strategic foresight and the need for proactive measures to prevent escalation. Ultimately, a sustainable resolution demands a recognition of the shared interests of the region’s nations and a willingness to prioritize stability over nationalistic ambitions.