The significance of this gathering stems from the evolving landscape of global trade, technological advancement, and the increasingly assertive posture of the People’s Republic of China. Historically, APEC, established in 1997, has served primarily as a platform for promoting economic cooperation and reducing trade barriers among its member economies. However, the rise of China as a global economic powerhouse, coupled with its focus on technological innovation and increasingly assertive foreign policy, has fundamentally altered the dynamics of the organization. The 20-Year “5S” Foreign Affairs Masterplan of Thailand, prioritizing stability, security, and sustainability, presents a counterweight to these trends, yet its effectiveness will be tested by the evolving strategic environment.
Key stakeholders involved include China, the United States, Japan, Australia, South Korea, the ASEAN nations – particularly Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines – and increasingly, India. China’s motivation is unequivocally centered on solidifying its position as a global economic leader and technological innovator, securing influence within the Asia-Pacific, and facilitating its “Belt and Road Initiative” – a sprawling infrastructure project with significant implications for regional connectivity and, arguably, geopolitical control. The US, while officially maintaining its commitment to APEC, pursues a strategy of containment, seeking to counter China’s influence through strengthened alliances and investments in Southeast Asia. Japan and Australia align closely with the US, viewing China’s growing assertiveness as a strategic challenge. The ASEAN nations, characterized by a complex mix of economic dependence on China and security concerns regarding China’s military build-up in the South China Sea, represent a crucial and potentially volatile element within the equation. As Dr. Eleanor Reynolds, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies, noted, “APEC is increasingly a theater for great power competition, with China attempting to frame the rules of engagement within the region.”
Data from the World Bank illustrates a significant shift in global trade flows over the past decade, with China consistently representing the largest trading partner for numerous APEC member states. A graph depicting this trend, showing China’s share of global trade rising from 12% in 2014 to 18% in 2024, clearly demonstrates the economic leverage China now wields. Furthermore, projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest a continued reliance on China as a major consumer of energy resources, creating dependencies that can be exploited. Moreover, the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence, as prioritized by China, presents both opportunities and risks. “The digital divide, exacerbated by uneven access to AI technology and digital infrastructure, represents a critical vulnerability,” argues Professor Jian Li, a specialist in Digital Security at Peking University. “Addressing this gap effectively is paramount to preventing technological fragmentation and ensuring equitable access to the benefits of AI.”
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) impact of the Shenzhen Accord is likely to be characterized by intensified diplomatic activity surrounding the APEC summit in Shenzhen, along with continued efforts to integrate China’s digital infrastructure initiatives into regional supply chains. There’s a significant risk of escalating tensions in the South China Sea as China continues to assert its territorial claims, further straining relations with nations like the Philippines and Vietnam. Longer-term (5-10 years), the strategic implications are even more profound. China’s ambition to establish a “Community of Common Development” – a vision centered on economic integration and shared governance – could reshape the regional power balance, potentially leading to the emergence of a Sino-centric Asia-Pacific. The adoption of China’s AI standards and the potential control over critical digital infrastructure could further solidify China’s technological dominance, fostering a new form of digital imperialism.
Within the next five years, expect to see increased collaboration between China and Southeast Asian nations on infrastructure projects – albeit potentially leveraging Chinese financing and standards – further intertwining their economies. However, this may exacerbate existing vulnerabilities related to debt sustainability and expose member states to Chinese influence. The Thailand government’s BCG Economy initiative, focused on bio-circular-green economy models, seeks to mitigate these risks, but its success hinges on securing investment and expertise from beyond China. The evolution of the APEC framework itself – potentially moving beyond pure economic cooperation to encompass security and strategic issues – represents a key, and currently undefined, element of the evolving landscape.
Ultimately, the Shenzhen Accord serves as a critical juncture in the geopolitical trajectory of the Asia-Pacific. It demands a concerted effort on the part of Western democracies to strengthen alliances, foster independent technological innovation, and address the security challenges posed by China’s growing influence. The question remains: will the international community respond with a coordinated, tenacious defense of its values and interests, or will it allow China to unilaterally shape the future of the region?