The pervasive stench of burning rubber and the fractured skyline of Juba – a visual testament to ongoing conflict – underscores a critical failure: the protracted paralysis surrounding the Revitalized Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Seven years after its signing, the agreement, intended to usher in a new era of stability and prosperity, remains stubbornly unfulfilled, casting a long shadow over the nation and amplifying destabilizing trends across the Horn of Africa. The situation demands immediate and decisive action, representing a crucial test for regional and international commitment to preventing a humanitarian catastrophe and safeguarding broader strategic interests.
Historical context reveals a complex tapestry of ethnic tensions, resource competition, and external interference that laid the groundwork for South Sudan’s descent into civil war in 2013. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), culminating in independence in 2011, initially offered a path to stability, but underlying fault lines – particularly between the Dinka and Nuer communities – remained unaddressed. The subsequent R-ARCSS, brokered by the Troika Capitals (United States, United Kingdom, and Norway) in 2018, aimed to establish a power-sharing government and address these grievances, but its implementation has been consistently hampered by political maneuvering, factionalism, and a chronic lack of accountability. “The promise of the R-ARCSS was initially met with optimism, but the reality has consistently diverged, demonstrating the deep-seated challenges to building a sustainable peace,” notes Dr. Fatima Ali, Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group, specializing in African security.
Key stakeholders remain deeply entrenched in a cycle of violence. President Salva Kiir and his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) continue to resist genuine power-sharing, prioritizing maintaining control over state resources and leveraging military strength. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Government (SPLM-IG), led by Pagan Amum Okoth, has struggled to assert its authority and effectively hold the SPLM-IO accountable. The motivations driving these factions are multifaceted, encompassing access to oil revenues, political patronage, and personal ambitions. According to a 2024 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), approximately 60% of South Sudan’s oil production is controlled by Kiir’s faction, effectively neutralizing any potential leverage from the opposition. Furthermore, estimates from the World Bank indicate that over 80% of South Sudan’s GDP is derived from oil, a vulnerability exploited by various actors.
Recent developments over the past six months paint a grim picture. Armed clashes between government forces and SPLM-IO factions have intensified, particularly in Upper Nile and Unity states, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and exacerbating the country’s already dire humanitarian situation. Data from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reveals that over 1.5 million people are currently facing food insecurity, a figure projected to rise dramatically with the upcoming rainy season. Additionally, the resumption of aerial bombardments by government forces, documented extensively by human rights organizations, has resulted in numerous civilian casualties. “The level of disregard for civilian life is deeply concerning and a clear indicator of the deteriorating governance situation,” stated Ambassador Richard Bellamy, the UK’s Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, in a November 2025 briefing.
Short-term projections (next 6 months) suggest a continuation of the current conflict, with a heightened risk of a large-scale humanitarian crisis. The upcoming national elections, slated for early 2026, are highly likely to be marred by violence and irregularities, further undermining any potential for a peaceful transition. Long-term (5-10 years), the potential outcomes are equally troubling. Without fundamental reforms addressing the root causes of conflict and establishing robust mechanisms for accountability, South Sudan risks remaining a failed state, a persistent source of instability in the region, and a magnet for illicit activities. The potential spillover effects extend beyond South Sudan, contributing to increased regional insecurity and potentially exacerbating existing tensions in neighboring countries, particularly Sudan.
The situation in South Sudan represents not only a humanitarian crisis but also a significant geopolitical challenge. The conflict has drawn in regional powers, including Ethiopia and Kenya, each with their own strategic interests. The Troika Capitals, historically the primary guarantors of the R-ARCSS, face increasing criticism for their perceived inaction. A sustained commitment to pressure Kiir’s government, coupled with targeted sanctions against key spoilers, remains the most viable path forward. However, a shift in regional dynamics – a more assertive role for Ethiopia, for example – could significantly complicate the situation. “The international community needs to move beyond rhetoric and demonstrate a genuine willingness to impose consequences for continued violations of the ceasefire,” argues Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, Director of the African Security Studies Centre.
Ultimately, the fate of South Sudan hinges on the leadership's willingness to prioritize the well-being of its people over narrow political calculations. The question remains: will regional and international actors demonstrate the sustained engagement and pressure needed to force a genuine shift, or will South Sudan continue its descent into a protracted state of conflict, a stark reminder of the fragility of peace and the enduring challenges of nation-building? The reverberations of this crisis, like the echoes of gunfire in Juba, demand reflection and, potentially, a coordinated response.