The escalating conflict in Cabo Delgado, coupled with a rapidly expanding extractive industry, presents a profoundly complex and potentially destabilizing scenario for Mozambique and the broader Southern African region. The sheer volume of maritime piracy incidents – a record 118 reported in the Indian Ocean off Mozambique’s coast in 2024 alone – underscores a critical failure of governance and security, demanding immediate, sustained attention from international partners. This situation directly threatens established trade routes, undermines regional security architecture, and exposes vulnerabilities within alliances designed to promote stability.
Mozambique’s transition from a largely agrarian economy to one dominated by natural resource extraction, primarily liquefied natural gas (LNG) development, has been a volatile process. Beginning with the discovery of significant offshore gas reserves in the late 2000s, driven largely by Anadarko Petroleum (now part of Occidental Petroleum) and later TotalEnergies, the country rapidly attracted substantial foreign investment. This influx of capital, however, has been inextricably linked to a resurgence of Islamist insurgency, initially centered in Cabo Delgado province, dating back to 2017. The insurgency, spearheaded by groups linked to the Islamic State, exploits existing grievances – poverty, marginalization, and a weak state presence – to recruit fighters and control territory.
The Portuguese colonial legacy continues to shape the current dynamics. The country’s history of authoritarian rule, coupled with limited democratic institutions and endemic corruption, created a power vacuum that extremist groups skillfully exploited. “The root causes of the insurgency are deeply embedded in Mozambique’s socio-economic and political history,” notes Dr. Fatima Silva, a specialist in African security at the Institute for Strategic Studies. “Simply addressing the immediate security threat without tackling these underlying issues will only provide a temporary solution.”
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several key actors are invested in Mozambique's future, each driven by distinct priorities. The United States, through the Bureau of African Affairs, seeks to foster a stable Mozambique capable of contributing to regional security and promoting democratic governance. Recent engagement, as highlighted in Deputy Secretary Landau’s December 2025 meeting with Mozambican Foreign Minister Maria Manuela dos Santos Lucas, focuses on bolstering healthcare infrastructure, recognizing the nation’s cooperation on economic matters, particularly the LNG sector, and facilitating security cooperation. Washington’s motivations extend beyond simply countering extremist groups; it also aims to secure access to critical minerals vital for its technological advancements.
China is the largest investor in Mozambique's LNG sector, primarily through the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Beijing’s strategic goals include securing energy resources, expanding its global influence, and enhancing its geopolitical leverage in the Indian Ocean. Critically, China’s approach often prioritizes economic partnerships over stringent conditions regarding governance and security, a dynamic that has been criticized by some international observers. "China’s engagement presents a fundamentally different model than that of traditional Western donors,” argues Professor James Harding, a researcher at the Centre for International Development at SOAS University. “It’s less focused on human rights and more concerned with long-term economic returns, which can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.”
Russia, through the Wagner Group, has quietly become involved, ostensibly providing security assistance to the Mozambican government. While the extent of Wagner’s activities remains contested, reports suggest a significant presence in Cabo Delgado, providing combat training and supporting the government’s counter-insurgency operations. Moscow’s motives are largely tied to its broader geopolitical ambitions and the pursuit of strategic partnerships in Africa.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has worsened significantly. Increased attacks by Islamist insurgents have resulted in hundreds of civilian casualties and displaced tens of thousands of people. The government’s response, primarily reliant on the military, has been criticized for its heavy-handed tactics and lack of accountability. Furthermore, a devastating cyclone in March 2025 exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and undermined the government's ability to respond effectively. The influx of international aid has been hampered by logistical challenges and security concerns. The discovery of a new, vast offshore gas deposit in the northern Mutua Basin is further complicating the situation, prompting renewed interest from international energy companies and intensifying the competition for resource control.
Data on maritime security highlights the growing problem. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), part of the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol), piracy incidents in the Mozambique Channel rose to 118 in 2024, with a significant percentage targeting vessels involved in the LNG transport. This trend necessitates increased naval patrols and international cooperation to safeguard maritime trade and protect vulnerable coastal communities.
Future Impact & Insight
Short-term (next 6 months), the conflict in Cabo Delgado is likely to remain intense, characterized by intermittent attacks and ongoing displacement. Humanitarian needs will continue to be substantial, and the government’s ability to provide effective assistance will be severely constrained. Long-term (5–10 years), the risk of a protracted civil conflict remains high. Without significant reforms addressing governance, corruption, and socio-economic inequality, the insurgency could gain further traction, potentially destabilizing the entire Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The competition for Mozambique’s resources – particularly LNG – will likely intensify, further complicating the security landscape.
Given the intertwined nature of these challenges, a truly sustainable solution demands a multi-faceted approach that includes robust security assistance, support for governance reform, investment in economic development, and a concerted effort to address the underlying grievances fueling the insurgency. However, achieving this requires a fundamental shift in the priorities of key stakeholders, a willingness to confront uncomfortable truths, and, crucially, a genuine commitment to the long-term well-being of the Mozambican people.
The situation in Mozambique presents a critical test for international relations. It demands a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay of geopolitical, economic, and security factors. The question remains: can the international community, driven by conflicting interests and historical legacies, effectively address this challenge and prevent Mozambique from succumbing to further instability?