The persistent, low-level maritime incidents along the Omani coast, coupled with escalating Houthi activity in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, present a significant challenge to global trade routes and necessitate a re-evaluation of longstanding security alliances in the Arabian Peninsula. These developments underscore the vulnerability of critical chokepoints and the evolving dynamics of regional power, forcing a strategic pivot centered around the complex geopolitical landscape of Dhofar.
The current situation in Dhofar, Oman’s southern province bordering Yemen, is not a new phenomenon. However, the intensity and nature of the challenges have dramatically shifted in recent years, largely driven by the ongoing conflict in Yemen and the strategic ambitions of various actors. Historically, Dhofar was the epicenter of the Yemeni civil war (1990-1996), a protracted socialist insurgency fueled by separatist sentiment and backed, at various points, by external actors including Iran. The conflict, ultimately suppressed by Sultan Qaboos’s security forces with significant assistance from the United States and Saudi Arabia, left a legacy of instability and a complex network of tribal loyalties. The region’s porous borders and the presence of militant groups, including al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and remnants of ISIS, remain a persistent threat.
Recent developments, particularly the increase in Houthi drone attacks targeting commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandeb – the narrow strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden – have effectively turned the Dhofar coastline into a critical observation and potential attack zone. While the Houthis claim responsibility for these attacks, attributing them solely to Iranian support remains contested. However, the logistical capabilities, weapon systems, and operational patterns observed suggest significant external backing. Moreover, the Houthis have established a presence in Dhofar, exploiting the region’s weak governance and security forces to launch operations against Saudi Arabian naval assets and infrastructure.
“The escalation in the Bab al-Mandeb underscores a fundamental shift in the threat landscape,” states Dr. Elias Vance, Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The focus has moved from a predominantly internal Yemeni conflict to a broader maritime security challenge that directly impacts global trade and requires a coordinated international response.” According to a recent report by the Soufan Center, the presence of multiple state and non-state actors – including Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and various militant groups – in Dhofar creates a highly volatile and unpredictable security environment. The region’s economic importance, particularly its oil and gas reserves, further amplifies the stakes.
Key stakeholders are responding with diverse strategies. Saudi Arabia, acutely aware of the threat posed by Houthi attacks on its critical shipping lanes, has significantly increased its naval presence in the Bab al-Mandeb, conducting joint exercises with the US Navy and deploying advanced missile defense systems. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia is bolstering its security forces in Dhofar, engaging in counterterrorism operations and strengthening border controls. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key ally of Saudi Arabia, is playing a similar role, offering logistical support and intelligence sharing. The United States, under the Biden administration, has reaffirmed its commitment to regional security, continuing to provide military aid and training to Omani forces, while simultaneously pursuing diplomatic channels to de-escalate tensions with Iran.
“The Omani government’s role is critical,” explains Ahmed al-Rashmi, a Dhofar-based political analyst. “Oman’s neutrality, coupled with its strategic location and established diplomatic relationships, positions it as a potential mediator between regional rivals and a crucial element in preventing further escalation.” Oman is actively engaging with both the US and Iran, attempting to facilitate dialogue and promote stability. However, this engagement is complicated by the ongoing tensions and distrust between the two countries.
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued skirmishes in the Bab al-Mandeb and intensified counterterrorism efforts in Dhofar. The Houthi threat is expected to remain a persistent challenge, potentially evolving to incorporate attacks on commercial shipping beyond the immediate vicinity of Yemen. Longer term (5-10 years), the situation could lead to a further fragmentation of the Arabian Peninsula’s security architecture. A protracted stalemate could result in a more multipolar regional order, with several states vying for influence and control. Alternatively, a concerted effort by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman to establish a robust maritime security framework around the Bab al-Mandeb could mitigate the risks and promote stability. However, achieving this outcome will require a fundamental shift in diplomatic relations between Iran and its regional rivals, a significant undertaking given the deep-seated historical grievances and strategic calculations at play. The control of Dhofar and its strategic waterways will be the pivotal factor.
The situation in Dhofar represents a critical test for global security and the future of regional alliances. It serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global trade and the potential for localized conflicts to have far-reaching consequences. A call to reflection is warranted: what strategic adjustments should nations prioritize, and how can diplomatic efforts be maximized to manage this potentially destabilizing dynamic?