The echoes of the Trump-era “America First” foreign policy reverberate across the African continent, and few countries feel the impact more acutely than Zambia. Recent diplomatic overtures, spearheaded by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, represent a deliberate, if somewhat jarring, recalibration of U.S. engagement in Southern Africa, one deeply rooted in shifting geopolitical alignments and a renewed focus on perceived economic neglect during the previous administration. The situation presents a fundamental challenge to existing multilateral frameworks and raises critical questions about the future of stability in a region historically reliant on Western security guarantees. The number of reported cross-border criminal activities, particularly those involving the illicit trafficking of cobalt and lithium – crucial elements in modern battery technology – has risen by 37% in the last six months alone, further complicating the already delicate landscape.
## A Shift in Priorities: Rubio’s Strategic Reassessment
The impetus for this renewed engagement stems from several converging factors. Firstly, the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its broader skepticism towards international climate commitments had a detrimental effect on U.S. influence in nations heavily reliant on natural resources, particularly Zambia’s significant copper deposits. Secondly, the perceived lack of attention to Zambia’s growing security challenges – largely fueled by a surge in transnational crime and instability in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – prompted a strategic reassessment within the State Department. Thirdly, the rise of China’s economic and political influence across Africa, often facilitated through infrastructure investments and trade deals, provided a counterweight that Washington felt compelled to address more proactively. According to a report released last month by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S. trade with Zambia declined by 18% between 2019 and 2024, a trend largely attributable to reduced direct investment and a decline in aid.
“The U.S. recognizes that its relationship with Africa is not built on charity,” stated Dr. Fatima Hassan, a senior fellow at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. “It’s based on mutual strategic interests, and in Zambia’s case, that includes safeguarding critical resources, promoting stable governance, and countering the expansion of illicit activities.” This sentiment aligns with a broader shift within the Biden administration, though one that retains a commitment to a more transactional approach to foreign policy.
## Zambia’s Strategic Positioning: Balancing Interests
Zambia’s decision to actively engage with the U.S. reflects a deliberate effort to diversify its partnerships and mitigate the risks associated with over-reliance on China. The country, under President Hichilema, has been grappling with a sovereign debt crisis exacerbated by infrastructure projects financed largely by Chinese entities. Hichilema’s administration has consistently advocated for greater transparency and accountability in these projects, a position that has drawn support from Washington. Furthermore, Zambia’s concerns regarding the ongoing conflict in the DRC, a neighboring nation with a history of instability and a significant impact on Zambian security, have been a consistent driver of diplomatic engagement. The influx of refugees fleeing the DRC, primarily due to the presence of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), has strained Zambian resources and underscored the need for enhanced regional security cooperation.
“Zambia’s strategic location makes it a critical node in the southern African security architecture,” explained Professor David Miller, an expert on African security at Columbia University. “The country’s willingness to engage with the U.S. signals a recognition that a multi-faceted approach – combining economic incentives with security assistance – is necessary to address the complex challenges it faces.”
## Emerging Trends and Future Implications
Looking ahead, the “Zambian Gambit” – as it’s increasingly being referred to – is likely to have several significant consequences. Short-term, we can expect increased U.S. investment in Zambian infrastructure, particularly in areas related to security and resource management. There will also be a greater emphasis on technical assistance and capacity-building programs aimed at strengthening Zambian institutions. However, the effectiveness of this engagement will be hampered by the existing bureaucratic hurdles inherent in U.S. foreign aid and the potential for further delays in congressional approvals.
Longer-term, the success of this strategy hinges on the evolving dynamics within the DRC. A resolution to the ongoing conflict and a stable, democratic government in Kinshasa would significantly reduce the external pressures on Zambia. Conversely, a protracted and violent conflict would likely exacerbate the existing challenges and further complicate U.S. engagement. Furthermore, the competition between the U.S. and China will continue to intensify, potentially leading to a triangular dynamic in Southern Africa. The rise of other actors, such as Russia and Iran, also presents additional layers of complexity.
The Zambian experience represents a pivotal moment in the reshaping of U.S.-Africa relations, a reminder that even as global power dynamics shift, localized strategic imperatives – particularly those related to resource security and regional stability – will remain central to Washington’s foreign policy. The coming months will undoubtedly reveal whether this gambit – a renewed commitment to a smaller, more targeted approach – can effectively address the challenges of the 21st century. The question remains: can the U.S. demonstrate a sustained commitment to supporting Zambia, or will this engagement prove to be another fleeting attempt to regain influence in a continent increasingly defined by its own complex and evolving geopolitical landscape?