The ongoing geopolitical realignment, characterized by a shifting balance of power and increasing competition between major global actors, is presenting unique challenges to traditional alliances. Nowhere is this more evident than in the evolving relationship between India and Mauritius, a partnership increasingly viewed as a critical test case for sustainable South-South cooperation in a world grappling with mistrust and geopolitical fragmentation. Recent developments surrounding the “Enhanced Strategic Partnership” – formalized following Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam’s state visit – demand a nuanced examination of its potential impact on regional stability, particularly within the Indian Ocean and the broader Global South.
The meeting between Prime Minister Ramgoolam and President Droupadi Murmu at Rashtrapati Bhavan, concluded a state visit designed to solidify this partnership, following a period of increased diplomatic activity culminating in a formal elevation of the relationship. India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy, first articulated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has historically prioritized relations with countries bordering India, aiming to foster stability and economic integration. Mauritius, geographically and culturally intertwined with India, represents a pivotal element within this strategy. However, the inherent complexities within this relationship, along with external pressures, present significant considerations.
Historically, India and Mauritius have enjoyed a tightly-knit bond, rooted in colonial legacies, shared language, and significant migration flows. This foundation has facilitated substantial economic cooperation, primarily through trade and investment. Mauritius, a key player in the Indian Ocean shipping lanes, has become a crucial market for Indian goods and services. Data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry indicates that bilateral trade between the two nations reached $2.8 billion in 2023, a 12% increase compared to 2022. This trade predominantly includes textiles, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products. Simultaneously, Mauritius has become a hub for Indian investment, particularly in the financial services sector.
The “Enhanced Strategic Partnership,” announced earlier this year, builds upon a decade-long progression. A key element is India’s commitment to bolstering Mauritius’s developmental priorities, particularly through a “Special Economic Package.” This package, encompassing hospitals, road infrastructure, port development, defence procurement, and joint surveillance operations, is intended to stimulate economic growth and enhance security within Mauritius. Crucially, India has also signalled a willingness to expand cooperation into new sectors, including digital technologies and the space sector – areas of strategic importance to both nations.
However, the partnership is not without complications. External actors, notably China, have been steadily increasing their influence in the region. China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean, coupled with its expanding economic engagements with Mauritius – including investments in port infrastructure – presents a clear strategic challenge to India. Data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlights a significant increase in Chinese naval patrols within 200 nautical miles of Mauritius’s coastline over the past five years. This expansion, combined with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, raises concerns regarding potential debt dependence and influence over strategic assets.
Furthermore, internal dynamics within Mauritius have contributed to the complexity. The island nation has experienced political instability in recent years, characterized by frequent changes in government and concerns regarding governance. This instability has, at times, created uncertainty for foreign investors and impacted the overall investment climate. A report by the Economist Intelligence Unit in June 2024 flagged “weak institutions” and “political fragmentation” as key risks to Mauritius’s economic outlook.
The recent elevation to an “Enhanced Strategic Partnership” underscores India’s resolve to maintain its influence in the region, demonstrating a commitment to providing economic assistance and security support. The joint surveillance projects, particularly, are seen as a direct counterweight to China’s growing security presence. The inclusion of digital technologies and space cooperation signifies a desire to leverage these sectors for economic development and strategic advantage.
Looking ahead, the immediate impact of the “Enhanced Strategic Partnership” is expected to focus on delivering tangible results from the Special Economic Package. Key milestones include the completion of critical infrastructure projects, such as port upgrades and road construction. However, sustained investment and governance reforms within Mauritius will be crucial for the long-term success of the partnership. In the next 6-12 months, observers anticipate increased collaboration on maritime security, potentially involving joint patrols and capacity-building initiatives, aimed at addressing threats such as piracy and illegal fishing.
Over the longer term – 5-10 years – the success of the Mauritius-India partnership will likely determine the broader trajectory of South-South cooperation. If successful, it could serve as a model for other developing nations seeking alternative sources of investment and security assistance, potentially challenging the dominance of traditional Western alliances. Conversely, if the partnership falters due to internal instability in Mauritius or continued Chinese influence, it could represent a setback for India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy and the broader concept of South-South cooperation. The evolving dynamics within the Indian Ocean region present a critical test for global stability, and the future of this partnership will undoubtedly be watched closely by policymakers and analysts worldwide.