The simmering tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, coupled with evolving geopolitical currents in the Persian Gulf, are forcing a fundamental reassessment of the India-UAE strategic partnership. A recent meeting between Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and UAE’s Minister of State for International Cooperation, Reem Al Hashimy, in New Delhi underscored this recalibration, revealing a calculated effort to bolster bilateral ties beyond traditional trade and investment, with implications for regional security architecture. This evolving relationship, built on decades of historical ties and expanding economic cooperation, is becoming increasingly critical for both nations navigating a world grappling with multipolarity and burgeoning instability.
The foundation of the partnership rests on a complex web of historical interactions. The UAE’s early recognition of India’s independence in 1947, followed by substantial investments during India’s economic liberalization in the 1990s, laid the groundwork. Beyond simply economic considerations, the UAE has consistently acted as a key intermediary in India’s foreign policy, particularly in facilitating access to global markets and maintaining diplomatic channels. “The UAE’s strategic location and diplomatic influence are invaluable assets for India’s foreign policy objectives, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape,” noted Dr. Arun Subramanian, Senior Fellow at the Brookings India Project, during a recent webinar.
Recent Developments & Strategic Shifts
Over the past six months, several developments have highlighted the partnership’s evolving priorities. India’s increasing focus on securing its maritime security, largely driven by China’s expanding naval capabilities in the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Hormuz, has intensified discussions with the UAE regarding defense cooperation. The UAE’s own strategic concerns, stemming from regional conflicts and its geopolitical alignment with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, have contributed to a mutual desire for deeper security engagement. In July 2024, India signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the UAE for joint naval exercises, marking a significant step beyond traditional defense trade. Furthermore, both nations have explored collaborations in cybersecurity, a concern exacerbated by rising state-sponsored cyberattacks. “The UAE’s willingness to participate in collaborative security initiatives demonstrates a willingness to play a proactive role in safeguarding regional stability,” stated a senior analyst at Stratfor, specializing in Middle East geopolitical risk.
Economic Interdependence & New Frontiers
Bilateral trade has consistently been a pillar of the partnership. Trade between India and the UAE reached $100.05 billion for the fiscal year 2024-25, reflecting robust growth across sectors including energy, technology, and consumer goods. However, both countries are now pursuing investments in more strategic areas. The UAE’s investments in India’s renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and hydrogen, are strategically aligned with India’s ambitious climate goals. Moreover, collaboration in the development of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence and space exploration, is gaining traction. The recent agreement to establish a joint technology park in Bengaluru signifies a long-term commitment to fostering innovation and knowledge sharing.
Security Dimensions & Regional Implications
The most salient shift revolves around security cooperation. While India’s defense relationship with the US remains central, the UAE’s willingness to engage in security dialogues and collaborate on maritime security initiatives represents a strategic diversification. This isn’t solely about countering China; it’s also about establishing a robust regional security network. The UAE’s participation in multilateral security forums, such as the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), and its coordination with other regional partners on maritime security issues, demonstrate a proactive approach. However, this expanded security engagement raises questions regarding India’s strategic alignment with other regional actors, particularly Saudi Arabia, in the context of the ongoing Yemen conflict and the broader geopolitical competition within the Persian Gulf.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Over the next six months, expect continued intensification of security dialogues and the formalization of joint security initiatives. A framework for collaborative maritime domain awareness is likely, alongside enhanced intelligence sharing. The UAE’s investment in India’s infrastructure sector, particularly in port development and logistics, is expected to accelerate. Looking ahead, over the 5–10 year horizon, the India-UAE partnership is projected to become a cornerstone of regional stability, potentially leading to the formation of a broader security alliance within the Indo-Pacific. This alliance, however, depends on navigating the complexities of regional rivalries and maintaining a delicate balance between strategic interests. The partnership’s longevity hinges on a shared vision for a stable, rules-based international order – a proposition that may prove increasingly challenging in the current geopolitical climate.