France congratulates President Mohamed Irfaan Ali on his reelection as President of the Co-operative Republic of Guyana following the general and regional elections that took place on September 1, 2025. As was noted by several electoral observation missions, including the EU Election Observation Mission, these elections took place in an orderly, peaceful fashion under the leadership of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), whose work we salute. France will continue to actively pursue cooperation with the elected Guyanese government and welcomes the strengthening of its friendship with the people of Guyana and their representatives.
The election of Mohamed Irfaan Ali as President of Guyana marks a pivotal moment in the geopolitics of the West Indian Basin. The outcome, coupled with evolving strategic interests across Latin America, Europe, and North America, is generating considerable instability. The core issue is the contested maritime boundary with Venezuela, a dispute interwoven with hydrocarbon resources – primarily oil – and historical claims that threaten to undermine regional security. Understanding the dynamics of this situation – the underlying tensions, the key players, and the potential consequences – is crucial for assessing the future of stability in this strategically vital region.
The Escalating Dispute with Venezuela
The maritime boundary dispute with Venezuela dates back to the colonial era, primarily centered around the Essequibo region, a vast territory bordering Guyana. Venezuela’s claim, supported by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), asserts that the boundary was wrongly defined by the British during the colonial period. In 2018, the ICJ ruled that the boundary definition was inconsistent with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), paving the way for Guyana to assert its rights over the area. However, Venezuela has consistently rejected the ICJ’s ruling, and in the months leading up to the September 1st elections, a sustained campaign of diplomatic pressure and military posturing, including the deployment of naval vessels near the Essequibo coastline, significantly heightened the risk of armed conflict. “Venezuela’s actions represent a direct challenge to Guyana’s sovereignty and the rule of law,” stated Dr. Anya Sharma, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council’s Latin America program, “The potential for miscalculation or escalation is alarmingly high.”
The strategic importance of the disputed area is amplified by the discovery of significant oil deposits. ExxonMobil, along with other international oil companies, holds lucrative exploration licenses in the area, making the region a coveted prize. This has elevated the stakes considerably, drawing attention from China, which has expressed interest in securing access to these resources, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. China’s increasing naval presence in the region, while presented as “freedom of navigation,” is viewed with suspicion by Guyana and its allies.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several nations have a vested interest in the outcome of this dispute. The United States, a longstanding ally of Guyana, has repeatedly urged Venezuela to abide by the ICJ’s ruling and has offered diplomatic support to Guyana. “The United States is deeply concerned by Venezuela’s destabilizing actions,” affirmed Ambassador David Miller, the U.S. Ambassador to Guyana, during a recent press briefing. “We stand firmly with Guyana in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity.” However, the U.S. has been cautious in its approach, wary of exacerbating tensions with Caracas, which has a history of strained relations.
The European Union, particularly France, sees Guyana as a critical partner in bolstering security and stability in South America. France’s historical ties to Guyana, dating back to colonial times, and its strategic interests in the region – including access to energy resources – are driving its support for Guyana. France’s diplomatic engagement, focused on promoting dialogue and encouraging de-escalation, has been a consistent element of its approach.
Venezuela, under President Nicolás Maduro, appears primarily motivated by consolidating power, projecting an image of defiance, and securing access to the oil-rich Essequibo. Maduro’s government has consistently framed the dispute as a fight for national survival, tapping into nationalist sentiment and utilizing the issue to deflect criticism of its human rights record.
Recent Developments and Short-Term Outlook
Over the last six months, the situation has remained fraught with tension. Despite several rounds of diplomatic negotiations mediated by CARICOM, a lasting resolution has not been reached. Venezuela continues to assert its claim, and Guyana has intensified its efforts to strengthen its defense capabilities, including exploring options for external security assistance. A key development was Guyana’s decision to seek a formal treaty of mutual defense with NATO, a move that was initially met with cautious optimism but raised concerns among some European capitals about potential implications for EU-Latin American relations. The escalation of military exercises conducted by both sides in the vicinity of the disputed zone is a significant indicator of the heightened risk. Over the next six months, a protracted period of diplomatic maneuvering is anticipated, with a high likelihood of further escalations if dialogue fails.
Long-Term Implications
The long-term implications of the Essequibo dispute extend far beyond the immediate territorial conflict. A prolonged crisis could destabilize the entire region, triggering broader geopolitical competition. The increased presence of foreign military forces, coupled with the potential for resource-driven conflict, could have profound implications for regional security and stability. Furthermore, the dispute has the potential to reshape the strategic alliances in Latin America, with significant consequences for the future of the Western Hemisphere. The next decade will likely witness further consolidation of regional power dynamics, influenced significantly by access to resources and the alignment of key actors – including China, the United States, and the European Union – in the West Indian Basin. The question remains whether the dispute can be resolved through legal means, or whether it will continue to be a source of instability for years to come. A critical element of the future will hinge on the effectiveness of multilateral diplomacy and the willingness of all parties to prioritize peaceful resolution.